The SPY(SPDR S&P500 ETF) is Trending Upward +1.48 for the week ending 08/05/2022
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The SPY(SPDR S&P500 ETF) is Trending Upward +1.48 for the week ending 08/05/2022
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Our proprietary market also forecasts the following trends (Risk-on or Risk-off) for the week ending 08/12/22:
Full Disclosure:
An analysis published is not investment advice!
I am not an investment advisor. Any financial information is for educational purposes only – NOT investment advice!
The SPY(SPDR S&P500 ETF) is Trending Upward +1.48 for the week ending 08/05/2022
Risk-on (Bullish):
QQQ, SPY, VIX-SPY correlation-variance
IMHO – I say- yet again - we may be witnessing a “Bull Trap” – just my opinion- of course.
Volatility is still with us – be forewarned! MHO The Bear Market is still very much with us!
The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course – the war -- all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case.
Note: FYI - Concerning my “VIX-SPY correlation-variance ” metric - IF the VIX is trending DOWN AND the SPY is trending UP for the most recent week of trading – then and only then will my VIX-SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on (Bullish) for the upcoming week. This only happens - currently – on an infrequent basis! – FYI
Risk-off (Bearish):
VIX, VVIX, WTI- Crude, Copper,
A cautionary note to keep in mind (IMHO we are not yet seeing a confirmed bottom in the market – could be a LONG way off- with the operative word being LONG!) - as Doug Casey said in a recent interview - we are in a chaotic period in global markets.
Conclusion:
For next week, the algo indicates that the Bulls – at least momentarily - remain in control.
Some say we are entering a global depression – not so much a recession. What do YOU think?
Doug Casey opines that we are indeed headed to the big “D”! He forecasts a bond market collapse and a stock market crash. He recommends intermediate-size oil companies. NOT the big ones!
Casey likes uranium stocks as well. He says he is long uranium stocks.
Interestingly, he likes the Uzbekistan stock market. I would NOT recommend investing there – unless you do your extensive due diligence. He mentioned it would be sort of a “lotto play” – Very risky!
IMHO I do not think we have seen the bottom – I always like to see at least a 3 week period in which the market is in a bull trend. Even then, the market can still sustain a bull trap or a so-called head fake for a prolonged period. Be careful in trading for the next one to two weeks!
I am tracking the weekly price movement of QQQ during 2022:
So, Moving forward, QQQ was a hypothetical “Buy” on 01/03/2020 at $401.68. IMHO this correction of QQQ remains in an indefinite period of profound weakness! No sign of a definitive bottom from this point moving forward!
Each week, I indicate the profit or loss, based on this (pretend) entry point. Let’s see where it ends up at the end of 2022!
As of 08/05/2022, this hypothetical trade shows a loss of - $79.93 (QQQ was $321.75 at the close on 07/92/2022).
Reminder: Daniel Riley –Mr. TopStep:
https://mrtopstep.com
provides daily updates on the markets: His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick
Swing-Trading:
I am illustrating the P/L (Profit/Loss) results of Ed Barsano’s also in a paper-trading acct
Check out my P&L at this link – using Ed Barsano’s free Algo- no software to download: Just set up an account at TDAmeritrade- I Love the algo!
Here is the link:
https://gobabytrade.com/gobabytrade_b0c29d35_0
Email Ed Barsano if you have any questions:
As of market close on 08/05/2022 - All data is USD!
Initial equity in the paper account: USD 7000.00
Stock Price Shares Total Profit/Loss (pending & completed trades‘ results)
RUN 33.23 23 -4.44
NVDA 189.89 8 -109.62
PAAS 20.47 132 +138.16
Commentary for 08/05/2022:
I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn! One of these follows- very “spot-on::
Published on LinkedIn – 08/05/2022:
The clever General will win the next phase of this war
Putin has moved his armies to reinforce Kherson in response to the build up of Ukrainian forces. In so doing he has weakened Izium south east of Kharkiv.
Sun Tzu wrote 'when an enemy retreats advance'. Yesterday Ukrainian forces made a successful, broad front attack north towards Izium to threaten the city.
Now Putin must decide whether to turn his army around and return it to Izium, or to lose Izium to defend Kherson. He knows Ukraine is readying itself to retake Kherson, so, perhaps he intends to strike first in the hope of breaking up those preparations.
The clever General will win the next phase of this war. Advancing on Izium is a bold and intelligent move, it forces Putin onto the back foot. I anticipate a concentration of forces soon that will thrust forward towards Kherson and the Dnipro River. However, this is what everyone expects, perhaps a cleverer man than me has other ideas.
There are eight weeks of good weather left before the rain and mud return. Both sides need a decisive victory before then but the greatest pressure in on Putin. When tyrants fail they usually die.
Pray for Ukraine and its soldiers and remind all political leaders to continue with all the support they can provide. Ukrainian soldiers fight for freedom today so that we don't have to fight for freedom tomorrow.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
I found this excerpt from The Financial Times (Swamp Notes) to be most prescient of what is- what will be and what it means for everyone on the planet--- IMHO it is indeed the “shadow of things to come”:
Source:
FYI: I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
***************************** -------- *****************************
On to the “Main Event”:
I post the URL for each news item I share in my REDDIT blog post - if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.
Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments! - Patrick
Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
Repeated- This is timeless AND priceless information:
4/18/22: Doug Casey: the world is headed for chaos and radical change
URL --- MUST View (recurring- as this is most prescient):
Links to impactful geopolitical events- that you should know about:
I published this on 6/3/22:
Benefits Of Hydrogen Peroxide On Plants And In Your Garden-Hydrogen Peroxide And Plants?
Yes, H2O2 has many benefits in your garden ranging from a disinfectant for garden tools and pots and work areas, to an anti-fungal and pest control powerhouse spray. Its uses……: MORE here:
It's gonna get ugly- Real Soon- Russia/Iran/China are now prepositioning their military troops on our southern border! R ready for the ?"occupiers"?Russia is releasing their prisoners to volunteer to join military, after 6 mo they are pardoned. We need to do that. We have about a million ...MORE!
"THINGS WILL NOT GET BETTER" - WIDESPREAD CIVIL UNREST IS INEVITABLE - PREPARE NOW! Chapters: Intro: 00:00 Civil Unrest: 00:25 Nat-Gas Prices Will Soar: 13:10 Millions Unable To Buy Food This Winter: 15:04 Theft Of Your Labor: 17:42 Funny: 26:27 Conclusion: 27:22
This - IS- an official blockade- China is showing it can destroy ALL of Taiwan's infrastructure- if it wishes- ALL of It!!!-THIS IS WAR. MISSILES LAUNCHED. JAPAN REACTS. THE TAIWAN BLOCKADE ENACTED. USA WARNING OF WAR.
SHTF! 100,000 Troops are being Deployed to UKRAINE! (prep now for war) 919 One unconfirmed report alleges that North Korea will send 100K military troops to join the fight in Ukraine! How do you spell "cannon fodder'? - IMHO of course!
THIS IS UNREAL... Water Riots Have Started 185,586 viewsAug 4, 2022
PREPARE FOR CREDIT FREEZE CREDIT CARDS WILL BE SHUTDOWN - WALMART FIRING PEOPLE INSIDERS DUMP STOCKS 74,914 viewsAug 4, 2022
We are getting warnings from around the club. They’re a diesel shortages in Canada and the average Canadian has more deaths than they ever had. It now cost the average family between $150 and $200 per week just to pay for the additional inflation of their lives. Elon musk is warning of a recession.
Summer Slow Down of 2022 - Experts Say Inflation Could Hit 18% 49,702 viewsAug 4, 2022 5.9K DISLIKE SHARE - It doesn’t matter what kind of industry you’re in because everything is slowing down right now. People are spending less money on gasoline because they’re not traveling. The restaurants are… More!
080422-GRAVITAS-China fires ballistic missiles over Taiwan - World divided over Taiwan, will Europe back the U.S.? - Taiwan showdown: Implications for India - Spectre of a war raises risk of recession - Pelosi at Korea’s DMZ
The level of financial pain Americans are facing right now is simply off the charts, and as the price of virtually everything continues to reach new record highs, they’re about to experience the most dramatic shift in the standard of living in all U.S. history. As the value of the dollar plummets, s
China is going to war!
WW3 Just Entered the Next Phase 13K - China has accelerated thir plans to take Taiwan by force- D-Da is a question of WHEN - and not IF - IMHO- my 2 cents' worth of course- Will they invade sooner or- late? What do you think? Your comments welcome!
Supplies Are Starting To Get Really Tight Nationwide As Food Distribution Systems Break Down 57,900 views-Aug 3, 2022 3.9K - Med supplies sourced in China-&food- -soon to be not available at any price! Get ready- Things will get "worse"- Are you ready for the chaos and anarchy that is coming???
A Must view post -Cometh the Horsemen: Pandemic, Famine, War | Michael Yon and Dr Jordan B Peterson 689,076 views Jul 28, 2022
Our medical systme is collapsing- at least in some parts of the US- Coming to your town soon? - Boots on the Ground...Aug. 3rd...Chicken meat being rationed in some areas.
PREPARE NOW! - FOOD BANKS ACROSS AMERICA ARE RUNNING OUT OF FOOD WHILE DEMAND SOARS Chapters Intro: 00:00 Food Banks Running Out of Food: 00:39 W.H. Says Economy Is Doing Great: 05:01 Recession: 08:28 Argentina Is Collapsing: 12:24 Conclusion: 14:25 Thank you for joining me today, Many Blessings t
Boots on the Ground...Aug. 2nd...Report from Australia, Japan and Pakistan. 14,073 viewsAug 2, 2022 3.3K
What will the next black swan event be? Will it be real estate? Will it be health related? Will it be food related? Will it be banking? The stock market is always a hot one and it’s just a matter of time until the next one happens. #BlackSwan #BankingCrisis #FoodShortages #IAllegedly #RealEstate #El
Famed billionaire hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio has doubled down on his bets against European stocks as he sees the global economy crashing with Europe leading the way. American investors in particular are betting big on higher stock prices. Who will be right? The recent yield curve inversion tells u
HORRIFIC ECONOMIC CRASH IS GUARANTEED - CALIFORNIA WANTS YOU TO DRINK SEWAGE WATER - GOLD IS SAFETY 78,324 views - Jul 31, 2022 - The Shadow of the Anarchy to Come- Economic collapse - all but guaranteed?
WARNING: MY MOST IMPORTANT VIDEO. The Stores Will be EMPTIED 14,368 -- If this happens the stores will be EMPTY in a week.
We Are Going To See Energy Prices Go Absolutely Nuts This Winter As We Face A Global Economic Crisis
History is repeating itself. Banks are cutting credit lines. People are having their credit card limits cut to $100. Banks are opening up fake accounts to meet sales quotas. Banks are storing money to prepare for the future losses. #CreditLines #Credit cards #BankFines #IAllegedly #USBank #CreditCar
******** END *************
More breaking news on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - - Patrick
Go here:
Stay tuned for the next issue!
Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
https://emsnews.wordpress.com/
Thank you for following my MAG Commentary!
Patrick
In closing – last but not least:
Glory to Ukraine:
🇺🇦 Epic Orchestral Anthem of Ukraine - "Ще не вмерла України і слава, і воля" [English Translation]
51,811 views
Mar 2, 2022
4/22/19- 2,869,274 views on YouTube-Official HD Promo Video for Pet Shop Boys' fantastic single 'Go West'. Taken from the Pop Art Best - Parody of Russia-China ideology: Glory to Ukraine!
Time Out! Time to break from all this killing and war - Take a break and enjoy some beats; 1 hour of Pet Shop Boys Greatest Hits - Full Album 2022 - Best Songs Of Pet Shop Boys --- If music isn't your thing-- Grab some Tequila or some other "diversion" from the grind of everyday reality!
Not subscribed to my free Market Algo Newsletter?
Go here for the URL to sign up today - It IS free:
I publish a FREE weekly newsletter on Substack: The Market Algo Newsletter – It forecasts the direction of the S&P 500 market - index for the upcoming week -
Bonus – Check out my favorite strategy to raise YOUR Brand Awareness – free:
********************** Break ***********************
** And now for Everything Else- or as Paul Harvey says: And now for the rest of the story”… aka - Ads. Promotions and MORE! **** **** ****
An Impactful & Interesting Influencer I recently featured in my LinkedIn Group - Dr. Mehmet Yildiz - Founder and editor-in-chief for six integrated publications on Medium – serving 137K+ readers –
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/14110518/
Ask me to feature you, too!
*** *** ***
My shameless self-promotion:
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I am available to make similar introductions for YOUR startup/mature company as well!
--- Patrick
https://protectmykid.us
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The 2 video links above explain “all you need to know” about how you can potentially make profits- consistently – with this one-of-a-kind crypto trading also! – Patrick OConnell
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Ed kindly shared this info on June 10th – FYI- NOT investment advice of course:
The goal of this video is to identify coins that can yield the highest percentage return during a crypto market recovery.
Thank you!
Ed
https://Crypto.GoBabyTrade.com
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Investment Risks
Investments in Cryptocurrencies and Stocks can lead to a loss of money over short or even long periods. Investors in Cryptocurrencies and Stocks should expect prices to have large range fluctuations. The information published on the GoBabyTrade website cannot guarantee that investors in Cryptocurrencies and Stocks will not lose money.
Saint Michael Technologies, LLC.
GoBabyTrade Copyright © 2022 All rights reserved
Terms & Conditions
***---***
IF you ever wanted to interview/research “The Rich and Famous” OR –
You have always wondered how you can interview/research an impactful and interesting person – I am now inviting you to steal – as in FREE - my strategy to do these things!
Grab a copy of my “Checklist To Interview/Research Impactful and Interesting People here:
Available at Gumroad.com:
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Thank you in advance for your interest and support. – Patrick
***===***
***===***
Important: Ellen Voie-CEO of Women In Trucking-has kindly offered caseloads of dolls – to be donated to NGOs and/or Ukrainian Resettlement organizations (501c3). Scientific research has indicated that “doll therapy” for children/the elderly is beneficial in many ways by “bonding” with a stuffed animal or a doll.
Check out the science for this:
https://digitalcommons.lesley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1324&context=expressive_theses
May I hear from you soon? – Patrick OConnell
I am open to anyone that has a serious interest in this generous offer (10 dolls to a case) – to DM me. We can hop on a call (Tuesday-Friday: 10 am Mountain Time – 4:00 pm Mountain Time) to discuss/provide contact information.
“First come – first serve” as they say, or “You snooze – you lose”.
Supply may be limited.
May I hear from you soon? - Patrick (LinkedIn ID - azpat0)
You can contact me through my profile as well:
https://protectmykid.us
Patrick OConnell
***===***
I have joined an awesome YouTube group - “UkraineNow” – I shall share links to some of our 3 times per week meetups in The MAG Commentary - check this group out by inputting “UkraineNow Community Meeting” in YouTube’s search link.
***---***
FYI:
I have contacts worldwide that subscribe to my MAG Commentary NL (Market Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries" and my Substack Market Algo NL:
--- Patrick
***---***
NOTE: I am currently working as a copywriter for:
https://thecommUNITYGridNetwork.com
I shall include a few links in each MAG Commentary newsletter with the focus on: “Homesteading & Sustainable Agriculture” Videos. IMHO this may be appropriate, given the current volatility in the economic, geopolitical, and ongoing volatility of global ecosystems, and cultural transformations/upheavals.
***---***
You are welcome to join (free) The CommUNITY Grid Network:
The Network connects, promotes, and evolves
Heart-centered farms, ranches, retreats, and wellness centers in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
The Network’s mission :
to create opportunities for people to connect with Nature at its vetted network of heart-centered farms, ranches, retreats, and wellness centers.
Simultaneously, the Network supports your destinations with customized workforce, wellness and agritourism strategies to make a sustainable living doing what you love.
--- Patrick
Link to The MAG Commentary (free weekly subscription):
https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/the-mag-commentary-6904287978823188480/
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Bonus –
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I also subscribe to The Cestrian Stock Bulletin – free:
https://newsletter.cestriancapitalresearch.com/add_subscriber
They have a paid plan on Substack- only $9 per month:
https://www.getrevue.co/subscribers/eU5H4l7fdLGkqv7aEMpeoQ/upgrade
They have samples of their newsletter posts on Substack, along with links to other newsletters they offer:
I plan to subscribe to their newsletter, with funds from my paid subscribers here at The Market Algo NL.
Disclosure: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long positions in, inter alia, TQQQ, NFLX, T, LHX, NET, DOCU.
You’re a free subscriber to Cestrian Tech Select. For the full experience, become a paid subscriber.
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The future of Database Workload Optimization:
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I charge the same amount- whether you want a pitch deck or a video presentation!
Don’t forget - My portfolio of social media and content marketing awesomeness is on my website:
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Free or $5/month: Check out Medium – a social media platform venue for freelance writers like me. If you want to support me as a writer, consider signing up to become a Medium member. It’s $5/month, giving you unlimited access to stories on Medium. If you sign up using my link, I’ll earn a small commission.
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Thank you! ---- Patrick OConnell
NOTE: Subscribe to my MAG Newsletter (weekly & Free) on LinkedIn – My shameless pitch (hint: MAG is “Market Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries”) – nothing else comes even close - on the internet:
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I publish The MAG Commentary (Market Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries) on LinkedIn (weekly and free):
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The following information is for Paid Subscribers to The Market Algo Newsletter only:
FOMO List and DD Sources (at the bottom of this newsletter for paid subscribers only)
Please read the FULL DISCLOSURE notice at the very top of every issue of The Market Algo Newsletter (NL)!
For paid subscribers:
My list (not inclusive) of my Due Diligence (DD) sources follows Only available to Paid Subscribers!
https://finance.yahoo.com
https://koyfin.com
https://americanbulls.com
https://stocktwits.com
https://barchart.com
https://macroaxis.com
https://armrreport.com/
https://finviz.com
https://themarketanalysts.com/
FULL DISCLOSURE: I subscribe to:
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FULL DISCLOSURE: I subscribe to Howard Lindzon’s free newsletter:
https://howardlindzon.com
My FOMO List – I am NOT an investment advisor – NOT investment advice! Do your own DD!
Symbol Quantity I own Avg Price Remarks (may not be any remarks)
AOSL 10 59.93 Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Ltd = Semi stock
ASML 8 733.95 ASML Holding N.V. - semiconductor equipment systems - VERY LONG TERM HOLDING!
BABA 2 126.00 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
BLDR 5 64.80 Builders FIrstSource, Inc
CORN 5 22.70 Teucrium Corn Fund
DBA 5 20.16 Invesco DB Agricultural Fund
DVN 5 51.00 Devon Energy Corporation (pays a Dividend)
ESTE 100 13.20 Earthstone Energy, Inc - VERY Volatile!!!
KRBN 5 51.70 KraneShares Global Carbon ETF - carbon Credits ETF
NVDA 12 312.83 Nvidia Corporation - volatile!
ON 13 70.08 ON Semiconductor Corporation = semi stock
PDCE 5 59.80 PDC Energy, Inc - energy
RJA 5 8.93 ELEMENTS-linked2Rogers Intl Commodity Index - Agricultural Total Return