The SPY(SPDR… S&P500 ETF)… is Trending UPWARD, Plus 5.67 for the week ending 02/03/2023
The SPY(SPDR… S&P500 ETF)… is Trending UPWARD, Plus 5.67 for the week ending 02/03/2023
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The SPY(SPDR… S&P500 ETF)… is Trending UPWARD, Plus 5.67 for the week ending 02/03/2023
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The SPY(SPDR, S&P500 ETF), is Trending Upward, PLUS 5.67 for the past week ending on 02/03/2023.
For the upcoming trading week, ending on 02/10/2023, our proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:
VIX index: Bullish,
VVIX index: Bearish – Not Looking Good!
SPY index: Bullish,
West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil: Bearish,
QQQ: Bullish,
Copper: Bearish,
And of course, the VIX – SPY Correlation Variance” Bullish!
Please note that the SPY, or SPDR – S&P500 ETF – is Trending UPWARD, PLUS 5.67, for the past week ending on 02/03/2023!
So what? So, our conclusion for the week ahead is that – yet once again - our algo indicates that the Bulls are now – at least for now - again in control for the week ahead!
Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble will be crushed, in our opinion!
For the past few months, we have been saying that we are entering a global depression, not so much a recession!
What do YOU think?
We agree with other analysts, that the equity markets are completely disconnected from the reality of the collapsing economies of many countries around the planet!
When we have a bullish week as we did last week - it demonstrates, yet one more time, that Wall Street is oblivious to the pain being felt by Main Street!
We think this is- yet again – a sucker’s bull rally in the ongoing bear market!
We do not think we have seen the bottom.
Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!
Indeed, The Bear Market is still very much with us!
We always like to see at least a 3, or greater week period in which the market is in a bull trend before we can determine a potential bottom for the market
Be careful in trading for the next one to three weeks, – AND MORE!
It’s a jungle out there!
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More details – and:
Our Full Disclosure:
This analysis is not investment advice.
We are not investment advisors!
Any financial information is for educational purposes only, not investment advice!
The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course… global drought, plus the “wars,” (take your pick: …Ukraine, Russia, China),…all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case!
Please note, Concerning our “VIX, SPY correlation-variance ” metric,
IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP, for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,… for the upcoming week,…
This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, only happens,…currently,…on a very infrequent basis!...
As Doug Casey said in a recent interview, we are in a chaotic period in global markets!…
One analyst shared that bear markets may have 7 bull runs during the course of a bear market.
The most recent sucker rally would possibly be bull run number 4!
We may have 3 more bull runs to go before the bear market has run its course.
Reminder:
Daniel Riley –Mr.TopStep:
https://mrtopstep.com
provides daily updates on the markets:
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick
Commentary for 02/03/2023:
I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!
Robin HorsfallView Robin Horsfall’s profile
Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
Published on LinkedIn: 02/03/2023
Compromise comes after the gun not before it.
It is now obvious that the western democracies are engaged in a proxy war against Russia. Without support from the west Ukraine would have been crushed by sheer weight of Russian numbers. No doubt the Ukrainians would still be fighting but by now it would be an insurgency operation of resistance.
Putin claims there is a proxy war and I see no reason to deny it. Yes, democracy is fighting him in Ukraine and will continue to do so until he is defeated. There is an air of desperation in Putin's actions now. He blusters about 'unforeseen circumstances' and 'new missiles' but nothing of any significance changes. He also sends more and more conscripts to the front lines to soak up Ukrainian ammunition with their corpses.
Putin believes that he can outlast Ukraine and beat them down until eventually they sue for peace. He must believe this, he has no other choice. Surrounded by an ever shrinking group of advisers he only hears what he wants to hear and probably only reads reports that are positive. However, it isn't only Ukraine that Putin must beat down, he must now beatdown the USA, Europe and other western democracies. China is sitting back and denying him help, India has filled it's storage facilities with cheap oil and has withdrawn its hand of friendship. Only North Korea is really supporting him and they are broke.
Putin will not back down, he must stay in the fight, he cannot lose. His modus operandi has always been subterfuge, power and leverage. Diplomacy to him is simply saying what is required to get what he wants. Compromise to Putin comes after the gun, not before it. If he loses the war in Ukraine, he loses everything. Yet he has already lost! He cannot win a war of attrition against the west. The west has more of everything and will send it.
Sanctions on refined hydrocarbons begin on 5th February, this reduces Russian income even more, 2023 will see Russia struggle to maintain its economy, no economy equals no army, no weapons, no pay and no food. He will lose.
The only thing that could prevent a Russian defeat would be weakness in the resolve of the rest of the world to continue. The democracies must continue, the alternative would be the end of free Europe, rule of law and the end of rules based societies.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
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FYI: I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
I post the URL for each news item I share in my REDDIT blog post - if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.
Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments! - Patrick
Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
New stuff:
RED ALERT. CHINA SPY BALLOON. MILITARY ADVISED TO SHOOT IT DOWN.
Top Gov. Officials Give TERRIFYING WARNING - 11 States in DANGER |
Is the CCP "Weather" Balloon- somethjing "more"?- BREAKING NEWS: Heres Why They Don't Shoot it Down! (China Balloon) -You won't believe "The Truth"! - Its a LOT more than what "They" are telling you!
Dept of Homeland Security has activated the Emergency Plan- Are YOU ready for what is coming?- Attacks on our food supply chain/Electric grids are projected to be imminent! - The "Event" is here!-Emergency DHS Plan Activated - Grid & Food Supply ATTACKS | Patrick Humphrey News
GET WHAT YOU NEED NOW! - WHEN THIS HAPPENS IT WILL BE A RESOURCE PROBLEM - GET PREPARED!
Has Biden surrendered to China? - Is "It" over? - What you think?-Joe Biden GIVES UP vs China | China's War Ballon in America
THIS IS SCARY DANGEROUS Full Spectrum Survival 349K subscribers
MUST WATCH! - RUSSIAN CALLS FOR NUCLEAR STRIKE ON U.S. DURING LIVE T.V. - SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED?
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More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - - Patrick
Go here:
Stay tuned for the next issue!
Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
https://emsnews.wordpress.com/
Patrick
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Symbol Quantity I own Avg Price Remarks (may not be any remarks)
AOSL 10 59.93 Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Ltd = Semi stock
ASML 8 733.95 ASML Holding N.V. - semiconductor equipment systems - VERY LONG TERM HOLDING!
BABA 2 126.00 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
BLDR 5 64.80 Builders FIrstSource, Inc
CORN 5 22.70 Teucrium Corn Fund
DBA 5 20.16 Invesco DB Agricultural Fund
DVN 5 51.00 Devon Energy Corporation (pays a Dividend)
ESTE 100 13.20 Earthstone Energy, Inc - VERY Volatile!!!
KRBN 5 51.70 KraneShares Global Carbon ETF - carbon Credits ETF
NVDA 12 312.83 Nvidia Corporation - volatile!
ON 13 70.08 ON Semiconductor Corporation = semi stock
PDCE 5 59.80 PDC Energy, Inc - energy
RJA 5 8.93 ELEMENTS-linked2Rogers Intl Commodity Index - Agricultural Total Return
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Patrick OConnell