The SPY(SPDR… S&P500 ETF)… is Trending DOWNWARD, MINUS 13.62 for the week ending 12/09/2022
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The Market Algo Newsletter: 12/16/2022
The SPY(SPDR… S&P500 ETF)… is Trending DOWNWARD, MINUS 13.62 for the week ending 12/09/2022
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*** *** *** *** ***
************* BEGIN *******************
Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, Risk on, or Risk off, for the upcoming trading week ending on December 23, 2022.
Our Full Disclosure:
This analysis is not investment advice.
We are not investment advisors!
Any financial information is for educational purposes only, not investment advice!
The SPY(SPDR… S&P500 ETF)… is Trending DOWNWARD, MINUS 10.01, for the past week ending on December16, 2022.
Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends, (Risk-on or Risk-off), for the upcoming trading week ending on December 23, 2022,
Risk-on, (Bullish),
WTI – Crude Oil,
And,
The VIX index,
The - Risk-off, or Bearish trends for the upcoming trading week!
Copper,
The VIX-SPY Correlation-Variance,
The VVIX index,
QQQ,
And The SPY index!
Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!…
Indeed, The Bear Market is still very much with us, as well!
The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course… global drought, plus the “wars,” (take your pick: …Ukraine, Russia, China),…all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case!
Please note, Concerning our “VIX, SPY correlation-variance ” metric,
IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP, for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,… for the upcoming week,…
This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, only happens,…currently,…on a very infrequent basis!...
A cautionary note to keep in mind…we are not yet seeing a confirmed bottom in the market!
That could be a VERY LONG way off.
The operative word being LONG!
As Doug Casey said in a recent interview, we are in a chaotic period in global markets!…
Our Conclusion is as follows:…
Remember that our S and P 500 market forecast is for the upcoming trading week only!
This forecast does not in any way portend a long-term trend!...
So, that being said,
Our algo indicates that the Bears are once again – in control for the week ahead!
One analyst shared that bear markets may have 7 bull runs during the course of a bear market.
The most recent sucker rally would possibly be bull run number 4!
We may have 3 more bull runs to go before the bear market has run its course.
You have been forewarned!
Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble, will be crushed, in our opinion!
For the past months – we have been saying that - we are entering a global depression,…not so much a recession,…
What do YOU think?...
We are in agreement with other analysts, that the equity markets are completely disconnected from the reality of the collapsing economies of many countries around the planet!
When we have a bullish week, it demonstrates, yet one more time, that Wall Street is oblivious to the pain being felt by Main Street!
We do not think we have seen the bottom,…
The bottom could be many months or even years off!
We always like to see at least a 3, or greater week period in which the market is in a bull trend… before we can determine a potential bottom for the market!…
Be careful in trading for the next one to three weeks, – AND MORE!…
It’s a jungle out there!...
I am tracking the weekly price movement of QQQ during 2022:
So, Moving forward, QQQ was a hypothetical “Buy” on 01/03/2020 at $401.68.
In our opinion, this correction of QQQ remains in a prolonged period of profound weakness!
No sign of a definitive bottom is indicated from this point moving forward!
Each week, I indicate the profit or loss, based on this (pretend) entry point.
Let’s see where it ends up at the end of 2022!
As of 12/16/2022, this hypothetical trade shows a loss of - $127.43, (QQQ was $274.25 at the close on12/16/2022!
Reminder:
Daniel Riley –Mr.TopStep:
https://mrtopstep.com
provides daily updates on the markets:
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick
Swing-Trading:
I am illustrating the P/L (Profit/Loss) results of Ed Barsano’s stock market trading algo - also my a paper-trading account below!
You can test drive Ed Barsano’s algo – for FREE!
There is no software to download.
Just set up an account at TDAmeritrade.
I Love the algo!
Here is the link:
https://gobabytrade.com/gobabytrade_b0c29d35_0
Email Ed Barsano if you have any questions:
Full Disclosure for everyone:
Original Account Value: $7000 USD
Current Account Value: $9476.18 USD
--- Current Profit Saved: $0.00 USD ---
The data below is as of market close on 12/16/2022,
All data is USD!
Stock Price Shares Total Profit/Loss
(pending & completed trades‘ results)
RUN 29.16 112 +209.40
NVDA 165.73 17 -187.71
PAAS 16.00 132 -451.88
Ed sends me a great weekly update on the status of my paper trading account:
Paper Trading Status
Today's Profits Taken:
$7.27
30-Day Profits Taken:
$173.16
Year-To-Date Profits Taken:
$591.81
Profits Saved:
$0.00
Commentary for 12/16/2022:
I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!
Robin HorsfallView Robin Horsfall’s profile
Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
Published on LinkedIn: 12/14/2022
Robin HorsfallView Robin Horsfall’s profile
• 2nd
Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
The man who destroyed Russia.
Russia fires thirteen missiles at Kyiv. All thirteen get shot down, there is some damage to buildings from the debris but no casualties. This news items indicates several things:
1. Russia is short of missiles and no longer capable of gathering a hundred to fire at one time to overwhelm UA defences.
2. UA air defences are improving.
3. Russia wants to hit back and do something no matter how ineffective.
Putin has gone into hiding again, perhaps in fear of the flu epidemic that is raging across Russia, perhaps because he is already seriously ill, or perhaps because he has nothing convincing to say to the Russian people.
Putin's one hope now is to divide the western alliance with his propaganda. His media outlets will continue to put out scare stories about nuclear weapons. Although possible, there is no indication to date that a nuclear weapon has been readied for deployment. The second a device is deployed the western powers will know.
Deploying a nuclear capable missile is not the same as deploying a nuclear device. Fear of Armageddon and fear of hyper inflation might still provide Putin with some leverage. Putin asserts that he wants to talk about peace and also asserts that Ukraine refuses to engage. Perhaps Zelensky's people should engage in talks but this should does not restrict them in regard to continuing the war. Any ceasefire now plays into Russia's hands.
The attack on Kyiv shows us how weak Russia's war machine is becoming. The Russian economy is worth 1.8 trillion dollars. The alliance facing him in support of Ukraine is worth 40 trillion. He cannot win.
All he can do is go home and take what remains of his armed forces with him. No matter what decision Putin makes now he will go down in history and the man who destroyed Russia.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
******** ******** *******
FYI: I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
***************************** -------- *****************************
On to the “Main Event”:
I post the URL for each news item I share in my REDDIT blog post - if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.
Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments! - Patrick
Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
New stuff:
24,609 views Dec 16, 2022 Food shortages and empty shelves are about to get way, way worse with the largest fertilizer plant in Europe speeding up the full and permanent shutdown of BASF Ludwigshafen. Genesis Gold Group | https://genesisgoldgroup.com/ Jonathan - 1-800-200-4653
SHocKeR! The Fed Says: "MORE PEOPLE NEED TO LOSE THEIR JOBS." And No Budget? AGAIN! Mannarino Gregory Mannarino 237K subscribers Subscribed 1.1K
WE'RE ENTERING A VERY SCARY TIME - MARKETS PANIC NO FED RESCUE - COSTCO RAISING MEMBERSHIPS -OBESITY jeremiah babe 176K subscribers Subscribed 4.3K
Shipments STOPPED - US Implements HUGE Railway EMBARGO - Producers WORRIED | Patrick Humphrey Patrick Humphrey 70.3K subscribers Subscribed 1.2K
29,878 views Dec 15, 2022 Russia loads MORE nuclear weapons into silos causing Alarm in west, Russian general threatens to nuke London on air, Poland essentially declares war on Russia by deeming state sponsor of terror, US sending troops to Ukraine with Patriot missiles (CRAZY!!!), Russian planni
Russia says the UK & US are next- Nuclear targets-You will be ready - or you will be dead- Got it?-Emergency red alert: Putin has readied massive nukes the YARS capable of hitting the USA and uk at any moment. Please prepare now for shtf and ww3 world war three as things escalate with The USA NATO R
https://www.reddit.com/r/EndUkrainianGenocide/comments/zmtc2x/russia_says_the_uk_us_are_next_nuclear_targetsyou/
******** END *************
More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - - Patrick
Go here:
Stay tuned for the next issue!
Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
https://emsnews.wordpress.com/
Patrick
********************** Break ***********************
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*** ***
Promoted Ad – FYI:
Timing is Everything For many investors!
It’s the missed opportunities that hurt the most.
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Full Disclosure- IF you should subscribe to Ed Barsano’s Crypto Trading Algo- I receive a small affiliate marketing commission. The subscription you pay is the same – with or without my affiliate commission! Thank you for considering Ed Barsano’s awesome algo to trade crypto – NOT investment advice- I am NOT an investment advisor. Trade at your own risk! – Patrick
GoBabyTrade Upate for: 06/02/2022
Profits Taken Report
6/2/2022
GoBabyTrade Stock
(Paper-Trading)
Profits Taken Today: $51.82
Annualized Return Percent: 142.43%
VIDEOS
Cryptos Crashing. Get Out or Get More?
Fully Robotic Trading Made Easy:
Investment Risks
Investments in Cryptocurrencies and Stocks can lead to a loss of money over short or even long periods. Investors in Cryptocurrencies and Stocks should expect prices to have large range fluctuations. The information published on the GoBabyTrade website cannot guarantee that investors in Cryptocurrencies and Stocks will not lose money.
Saint Michael Technologies, LLC.
GoBabyTrade Copyright © 2022 All rights reserved
Terms & Conditions
The 2 video links above explain “all you need to know” about how you can potentially make profits- consistently – with this one-of-a-kind crypto trading also! – Patrick OConnell
********--------********
Ed kindly shared this info on June 10th – FYI- NOT investment advice of course:
The goal of this video is to identify coins that can yield the highest percentage return during a crypto market recovery.
Thank you!
Ed
https://Crypto.GoBabyTrade.com
480-370-8101
If you would not like to see future emails from GoBabyTrade, please.
Investment Risks
Investments in Cryptocurrencies and Stocks can lead to a loss of money over short or even long periods. Investors in Cryptocurrencies and Stocks should expect prices to have large range fluctuations. The information published on the GoBabyTrade website cannot guarantee that investors in Cryptocurrencies and Stocks will not lose money.
Saint Michael Technologies, LLC.
GoBabyTrade Copyright © 2022 All rights reserved
Terms & Conditions
********** More stuff! *********
I also subscribe to The Cestrian Stock Bulletin – free:
https://newsletter.cestriancapitalresearch.com/add_subscriber
They have a paid plan on Substack- only $9 per month:
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They have samples of their newsletter posts on Substack, along with links to other newsletters they offer:
I plan to subscribe to their newsletter, with funds from my paid subscribers here at The Market Algo NL.
Disclosure: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long positions in, inter alia, TQQQ, NFLX, T, LHX, NET, DOCU.
You’re a free subscriber to Cestrian Tech Select. For the full experience, become a paid subscriber.
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I publish The MAG Commentary (Market Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries) on LinkedIn (weekly and free):
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The following information is for Paid Subscribers to The Market Algo Newsletter only:
FOMO List and DD Sources (at the bottom of this newsletter for paid subscribers only)
Please read the FULL DISCLOSURE notice at the very top of every issue of The Market Algo Newsletter (NL)!
For paid subscribers:
My list (not inclusive) of my Due Diligence (DD) sources follows Only available to Paid Subscribers!
https://finance.yahoo.com
https://koyfin.com
https://americanbulls.com
https://stocktwits.com
https://barchart.com
https://macroaxis.com
https://armrreport.com/
https://finviz.com
https://themarketanalysts.com/
FULL DISCLOSURE: I subscribe to:
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My FOMO List – I am NOT an investment advisor – NOT investment advice! Do your own DD!
Symbol Quantity I own Avg Price Remarks (may not be any remarks)
AOSL 10 59.93 Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Ltd = Semi stock
ASML 8 733.95 ASML Holding N.V. - semiconductor equipment systems - VERY LONG TERM HOLDING!
BABA 2 126.00 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
BLDR 5 64.80 Builders FIrstSource, Inc
CORN 5 22.70 Teucrium Corn Fund
DBA 5 20.16 Invesco DB Agricultural Fund
DVN 5 51.00 Devon Energy Corporation (pays a Dividend)
ESTE 100 13.20 Earthstone Energy, Inc - VERY Volatile!!!
KRBN 5 51.70 KraneShares Global Carbon ETF - carbon Credits ETF
NVDA 12 312.83 Nvidia Corporation - volatile!
ON 13 70.08 ON Semiconductor Corporation = semi stock
PDCE 5 59.80 PDC Energy, Inc - energy
RJA 5 8.93 ELEMENTS-linked2Rogers Intl Commodity Index - Agricultural Total Return
*** *** ***
Subscribe to my free weekly MAG Commentary on LinkedIn (Market Forecasts & Geopolitical Commentaries" to stay current on global geopolitics:
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Patrick OConnell – Editor: The MAG Commentary