The S&P500 is Trending Down - for the Week ending 02/28/2022
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The S&P500 is Trending Down - for the Week ending 02/28/2022
Paid Sub: NEVER miss an issue! Get EVERY ISSUE: To include: FOMO ETF/Stock Picks & DD Sources!
The Market Algo Newsletter
For the week beginning 02/22/2022
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Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends (Risk-on or Risk-off) for the week ending 02/28/2022:
Risk-on (Bullish): VVIX; WTI; Copper; VIX-SPY Variance-Correlation (bullish for nimble traders wanting to trade the “dip”)
Risk-off (Bearish):
QQQ; VIX
Conclusion:
The Bear remains in control. Yet, for nimble day traders, it may be possible to do some scalping. Not for the faint of heart!
I am tracking the weekly price movement of QQQ during 2022:
So,. Moving forward, QQQ was a hypothetical “Buy” on 01/03/2020 at 401.68. IMHO this correction of QQQ remains in an indefinite period profound weakness! No sign of a bottom from this point moving forward!
Each week, I indicate the profit or loss, based on this (pretend) entry point. Let’s see where it ends up at the end of 2022!
As of 02/14/2022 this hypothetical trade shows a loss of $63.60 (QQQ was $338.08 at the close on 02/22/2022).
Reminder: Daniel Riley --Mr TopStep:
https://mrtopstep.com
provides daily updates on the markets: His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick
His 02/22/2022 email:
Mr Top Step <mrtopstep@substack.com> Unsubscribe
6:55 AM (13 hours ago)
Our View
Putin has taken over parts of Ukraine and his army has not fired a shot. This has been a very well-orchestrated and well-executed plan. Mass troops and high-tech military equipment are on the borders and they are operating on the premise of protecting the Russian speaking people in the separatist areas. Putin has totally out-smarted everyone and there was never going to be a meeting with Biden. It was all smoke and mirrors.
All I can say is, there is only one other time that the S&P acted this bad and it was during the 2008 credit crisis.
No matter how bad things get I am always looking for the silver lining, but in this situation, there are just too many negatives and too much debt. How much lower is the S&P going? Last year the S&P gained 27% and at last night’s Globex low, the ES was down a little over 11% from the highs.
My forecast was for a 15%-plus drop in the S&P this year and I still think we can get it.
Our Lean
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…***…
Market Notes and Commentary:
Howard Lindzon’s Sunday Listens-email - dated 02/20/2022 as always-is a most compelling read:
Excerpts follow:
Good morning everyone.
I had a great ride yesterday and have a long morning rider with my regular Sunday group this morning.
The weather in Phoenix continues to be perfect. There was no winter.
In a couple weeks I head on the road for most of April and May. I am calling it the cycling and crypto meets fintech and falafel tour. New York, Tuscany, Tel Aviv, Miami, South Carolina, Mallorca, London, Bahamas.
I should get a feel for how the rest of the world is working and investing post COVID.
This week I wanted to share just one read and it is a great one…’Minsky Moments in Venture Capital‘. My friend Ameet shared it with me.
On the audio side, Patrick had a great podcast with Joey Levin of IAC on building the ANTI conglomerate.
Just a reminder also that every Friday, my friend Tadas at Abnormal Returns does a business podcast roundup of his favorite and most listened to podcasts of the week. You can subscribe free as welcome.
Have a fun Sunday.
If you like this newsletter, please share it or forward it to a friend!
Join my Daily Newsletter
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I write in your inbox each morning by subscribing to my daily-ish newsletter.
======== ******** ========
Dave Banister, Chief Analyst at The Market Analyst
(email: Dave@themarketanalysts.com)
has some interesting information he shared in his Jan 09, 2021 Sunday Market Commentary:
[Full Disclosure: I subscribe to his Stock Reversals Premium newsletter - check out the SRP newsletter – to include a link to all of his awesome newsletters at:
https://srpmembers.com
]
Dave’s Market Notes and Commentary:
He shares LOTS of actionable recommendations in his SRP newsletter:
Market Notes and Commentary - 02/14/2022:
He has some stellar results of past trades—posted on his website!
His Stock Reversal /Alerts Premium Newsletter is my favorite!
Last weeks notes repeated here:
“There is almost always a C wave after an A down, B up… so this is normal action even though it’s not fun for the Bulls. Keep an eye on the 4350’s area as next support and then 4215 and then if we break that well it can get ugly. Loosely I still think we double bottom above the A wave lows at some point, and then may start a Bull cycle up, but one day at a time.”
So far this is playing out and with futures below 4300 on Monday we should see a test of the A wave lows ahead, maybe worse. Good time to be patient with stock trading in terms of going long on new positions for sure. 3x ETF and Futures can trade bearish positions but again we could be getting close to an ABC Bottom. 4220 area is key for SP 500 ahead. SRP Members and 3x ETF, Futures etc members are updated every morning on market conditions and my maps for the markets.
Read up at the3xetftrader.com and join on stocktwits at $40 a month.
Futures service is also on Stocktwits and just $50 a month, huge profits last several weeks
Not much to add as this move I have mapped out as likely so again key is watching prior A wave lows to hold.
The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds the number hitting highs and is at the lower end of its range, indicating extreme fear. That said, we need the fear reading to drop to 10-15 from current range of 36 (CNN Fear Gauge)
I also subscribe to The Cestrian Stock Bulletin – free:
https://newsletter.cestriancapitalresearch.com/add_subscriber
They have a paid plan on Substack- only $9 per month:
https://www.getrevue.co/subscribers/eU5H4l7fdLGkqv7aEMpeoQ/upgrade
They have samples of their newsletter posts on Substack, along with links to other newsletters they offer:
I plan to subscribe to their newsletter, with funds from my paid subscribers here at The Market Algo NL.
Disclosure: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long positions in, inter alia, TQQQ, NFLX, T, LHX, NET, DOCU.
You’re a free subscriber to Cestrian Tech Select. For the full experience, become a paid subscriber.
***--------***
Swing-Trading:
I am illustrating P/L (Profit/Loss) results of Ed Barsano’s algo in a paper-trading acct
Check out my P&L at this link – using Ed Barsano’s free Algo- no software to download: Just set up an account at TDAmeritrade- I Love the algo!
Here is the link:
https://gobabytrade.com/gobabytrade_b0c29d35_0
Email Ed Barsano if you have any questions:
As of market close on 02/22/2022 - All data is USD!
Initial equity in the paper account: $7000.00 USD
Stock Price Shares Total Profit/Loss (pending & completed trades‘ results)
RUN 22.64 109 -1309.30
NVDA 243.15 8 -5.18
PAAS 24 97 +289.78
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FOMO List and DD Sources: ONLY available for the Paid Subscribers!
From the editor of The Market Algo Newsletter (me- Patrick OConnell):
Bustle has shared the following:
A numerologist, Josh Siegle has shared that although the date 02/22/2022 does not necessarily portend any dramatic events actually happening on that date (note that the Russian Bear has undertaken an incursion into Ukraine on the morning of 02/21/22 however), the 02/22/2022 date is noteworthy in that it is the date of the United States’ Pluto return.
IMHO, I think it is more than just mere coincidence that 02/21/20222 is the date on which George Washington was borne, ANMD – again- my speculation only- it could be a date on which, in years to come may be seen as the date that the Soviet Union reincarnated upon the world stage. I have read that Putin fancies himself as the one to resurrect the USSR from the dustbin of history. Ummm… time will tell.
What do you think?
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has weighed in on the seriousness of the situation as noted below:
Source:
https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/02/1112442
22 February 2022
Following Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of certain areas of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the High Commissioner for Human Rights on Tuesday added her voice to the UN’s growing chorus of alarm.
“I am deeply concerned that any significant escalation in military action creates a heightened risk of serious human rights violations as well as violations of international humanitarian law”, said Michele Bachelet.
She underscored that at this critical juncture, “the priority, above all”, must be to prevent a further escalation, and to avert civilian casualties, displacement and destruction of civilian infrastructure.
“I call on all sides to cease hostilities and to pave the way for dialogue instead of setting the stage for further violence”, the High Commissioner said, assuring that her office continues to monitor the situation closely “from our offices on both sides of the contact line in the east of the country.”
Only one path forward
Russia’s recognition violates the Minsk Agreements – the fragile peace process regulating the conflict in eastern Ukraine – and increases fears that Russia is posed for a full-scale invasion.
Before the General Assembly meets on Ukraine tomorrow, the body’s president, Abdulla Shahid, issued a statement calling on the parties to “intensify negotiations and deescalate the current trajectory through dialogue”.
He reminded that a full commitment to the UN Charter, its purposes and its principles is “the only path to ensure lasting peace.”
Protecting health systems ‘paramoun
The World Health Organization (WHO) joined others in expressing its deepest concern over the escalating crisis in eastern Ukraine.
Noting that the right to health is “at the centre of humanitarian response”, it said in a statement: “The WHO Country Office in Ukraine, together with the office of the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Ukraine and in coordination with WHO/Europe, continues to work closely with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine in providing health support to meet the needs of populations in affected areas”.
The assertion underscored that protecting health systems is “paramount, particularly during these challenging times” to guarantee the timely a delivery of essential health support and services to contain the spread of COVID-19 and maintain polio prevention and response.
“Ensuring the health and well-being of all people lies at the core of WHO’s mandate and commitments in all situations, including humanitarian crises and conflicts”, the statement concluded.
‘A stark reminder’
The UN humanitarian coordination body, OCHA, told journalists in Geneva that in recent days there had been reported increases in hostilities in areas controlled by the de facto authorities.
OCHA spokesperson Jens Laerke called it “a stark reminder” of the reality that children, women and men of Eastern Ukraine have faced for the past eight years.
“We call on everybody and all parties to protect civilians and protect civilian infrastructure in this very volatile situation.”
Responding to journalists, he said that the UN office has had a humanitarian response plan predating recent events, which focuses on pre-existing humanitarian needs, including a convoy that had delivered humanitarian supplies to non-Government-controlled areas last Friday.
However, he lamented that funding remains short, and urged the donor community to provide additional resources.
‘Volatile, unpredictable’
Meanwhile, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said that it was monitoring the “highly…unpredictable” situation and stood ready to help in case any new humanitarian needs arose.
It was important to remember also that there is a pre-existing displacement crisis caused by earlier conflict in Eastern Ukraine, UNHCR spokesperson Shabia Mantoo said, a reference to the 1.5 million people who’ve been forced to leave their homes since the onset of conflict in 2014.
According to the UN’s 2022 Humanitarian Response Plan for Ukraine, some 144,000 internally displaced persons live in government-controlled areas of Donetsk, Luhansk and other areas.
The most vulnerable include older people, who represent 32 per cent of the people targeted for assistance in 2022, and the children of vulnerable families, who make up 14 per cent.
The response efforts also aim to meet the critical needs of 225,000 persons with disabilities.
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In closing- this missive from The Trumpet Brief:
02/22/2022
Dear Subscriber,
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has declared war on his own people. On February 14, he invoked the Emergencies Act for the first time in Canadian history to break up the Freedom Convoy parked in protest in Canada’s capital city. The Trudeau regime declared that it now has powers usually reserved for national emergencies like a state of war, powers such as dispersing and arresting demonstrators and freezing bank accounts of anyone connected to protests.
The New York Times initially reported that Trudeau was suspending the civil liberties of Canadian citizens. It quickly retracted the statement after Trudeau’s supporters complained, but suspending civil liberties is the entire purpose of the Emergencies Act. It is the successor to the War Measures Act, which Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau invoked in 1970. But unlike the father, who suspended civil liberties to stop terrorists and rescue a kidnapped provincial deputy premier and a British diplomat, the son suspended civil liberties to stop a peaceful and even festive protest and to force thousands of law-abiding citizens to subject themselves to vaccination or lose their jobs.
Canadian police arrested nearly 200 people and hauled away 79 vehicles from downtown Ottawa, the nation’s capital, where truckers and their supporters had parked them in protest. They weren’t gentle about it. Police fired tear gas and used batons to clear out demonstrators. A video posted to Twitter shows mounted officers trampling an elderly Native American woman with their horses. Meanwhile, the government froze the bank account of a single mother working a minimum-wage job because she donated $50 to an anti-vaccine mandates protest.
You can read more here:
PS:
There is a convoy on its way to Washington,DC. I read that the National Guard and the Police are waiting for them. Many tow trucks will be used to repeat the same sort of actions that Trudeau undertook in Ottawa! We surely live in “interesting times”!