The S&P500 is Trending Down - for the Week ending 03/18/2022
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The S&P500 is Trending Down - for the Week ending 03/18/2022
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The Market Algo Newsletter
For the week beginning 03/14/2022
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Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends (Risk-on or Risk-off) for the week ending 03/11/2022:
Risk-on (Bullish): No metrics indicate a Risk-on trend(other than VIX and VIX – which tells me next week will favor day traders and short term scalp trades). – The next week appears to be showing a full Bear market through 03/18/2022.
Risk-off (Bearish):
All other metrics are Risk-off (Bearish): WTI, Copper, VIX-SPY Variance-Correlation,and QQQ.
Conclusion:
The Bear remains in control, with the week over week trending of the SPY being in a downward trend. Nimble traders might be able to profit from short term scalping trades. Not for the faint of heart!
I am tracking the weekly price movement of QQQ during 2022:
So, Moving forward, QQQ was a hypothetical “Buy” on 01/03/2020 at 401.68. IMHO this correction of QQQ remains in an indefinite period profound weakness! No sign of a definitive bottom from this point moving forward!
Each week, I indicate the profit or loss, based on this (pretend) entry point. Let’s see where it ends up at the end of 2022!
As of 03/11/2022, this hypothetical trade shows a loss of $77.28
(QQQ was $324.40 at the close on 03/11/2022).
Reminder: Daniel Riley –Mr. TopStep:
https://mrtopstep.com
provides daily updates on the markets: His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick
…***…
Market Notes and Commentary:
Howard Lindzon’s Monday Momentum email newsletter- dated 03/07/2022 as always-is a most compelling read:
Excerpts follow:
Momentum Monday…Aluminum Is Eating The World as The World Barfs Software Stocks
As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.
Happy Monday.
My friend Alex’s campaign for Ukranian families has raised $650,000 so 650 families will get a bit of financial help. You can make a difference here.
I will get right to this weeks Momentum Monday episode with Ivanhoff. You can watch/listen on YouTube right here. I have also embedded it right below on the blog:
Here is the quick and dirty in the markets…
Aluminum…oil…coal…wheat all continue to have all the positive momentum. It was the best week for commodtiies since 1974
Meanwhile, the bear market in technology continues to rage:
Europe has given back the pandemic gains and has an energy crisis:
If you want to build a list of the best performing, highest momentum energy and commodity stocks, the Stocktwits 25 lists has them here.
Charlie’s 7 chart Sunday is excellent.
Here is Ivanhoff’s take:
The market is flexible, adaptable to new conditions. Money always goes somewhere. While the main indexes continue to be under pressure, select sectors are thriving. Last week, the big winners were oil, coal, grains, metals, grocery stores, military stocks, railways. The losers were tech, consumer discretionary, Europe. In fact, most of the European indexes and ETFs made fresh 52-week lows on Friday.
For a brief moment last week, alternative energy stocks also perked up – solar, fuel cells, you name it. It only makes sense. If oil, gas, and coal are getting way more expensive, their alternative should be worth more. This is exactly what happened in 2007-mid2008 when oil went from $60 to $140 per barrel. ESG wasn’t even a thing at the time. It’ll be interesting to see if the same patterns repeat this time again. Most alt energy names are down more than 70% from their recent highs and still in a downtrend but I’ll be paying attention.
I don’t know how long the run in commodities will last but what I know is that eventually, it leads to further weakness in the general market. Most stocks keep making lower highs and lower lows in a declining market but shorting is not easy when volatility is elevated. In a headline-driven market, even a rumor can cause a quick short-term bounce that can stop you out before a stock continues lower. The cure is to be aware of the choppy nature of down-trending markets, be nimble, take frequent profits when you have them and use smaller positon size; be selectively active, and simplify things as much as possible.
The USD is romping as it generally does during a crisis and I continue to have a high cash position and wait the tech bear market out.
Morgan Housel had a great riff that I will include here:
Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures, click here.
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======== ******** ========
Dave Banister, Chief Analyst at The Market Analyst
(email: Dave@themarketanalysts.com)
has some interesting information he shared in his Jan 09, 2021, Sunday Market Commentary:
[Full Disclosure: I subscribe to his Stock Reversals Premium newsletter - check out the SRP newsletter – to include a link to all of his awesome newsletters at:
https://srpmembers.com
]
Dave’s Market Notes and Commentary:
He shares LOTS of actionable recommendations in his SRP newsletter:
Market Notes and Commentary - 03/06/2022:
He has some stellar results of past trades—posted on his website!
His Stock Reversal /Alerts Premium Newsletter is my favorite!
Weekly Stock Market Forecasts, Charts, Crypto and Trading Strategies Report Week of March 7th 2022
“By the way I want to thank you once again for the amazing service you are offering…Have been a member of SRP for more than 4 years and I really have no words…only huge respect and gratitude…my account keeps growing steadily and consistently…it’s really a blessing for me and my family…The 3xETF service is a huge additional value to my portfolio and I plan to join more of your services very soon…” Bill L. 1/3/22
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It’s been quite a while since I’ve checked in. I hope all’s well with you. Couple weeks ago I re-upped for my 2nd year in SRP. Just wanted to say thanks for all the excellent trade alerts over the past year. I’m really enjoying your service as a valuable component of my overall market approach. I’ve also noticed that you don’t go crazy with new alerts when the market/sentiment is iffy, which is impressive. Great job (not that you need me to tell you that!)” – Matt S.- SRP member, 9/21/21
“I’ve mentioned it before, but it’s worth mentioning again. I’ve been a subscriber in three of Dave’s services – SRP, TPS and 3xETF for about a year now. Because I feel so highly in regards to Dave’s services and the performance I’ve experienced; my daughter, my brother and another friend have become subscribers to at least one of his services. I’m working on a couple other people as well😉 Dave thanks so much for all you do!” – 1/7/21- @JTD26 on Stocktwits
Market Notes and this weeks charts: FUTURES at 4340 on Monday Morning Pre Market
Market bottom C wave may get tested again soon 4114 if 4230 doesn’t hold (Chart)
Energy, Agriculture, Silver, Gold, Materials etc continue to lead market
NASDAQ more rough sledding last week
NYSE (n) – 131 New Highs, 201 Lows
NASDAQ – 52 New Highs, 362 Lows
AMEX (a) – 6 New Highs, 7 LowsGOLD making run at 2019 highs (Chart)
Silver also strong, could be big winner 2022
Bitcoin struggles to take out 45k, but monthly chart still consolidating (Chart)
Recent results:
3x ETF trying TNA late in week but with stop in place
SRP only a few positions open this week, energy stocks on swing list took off early in week and we missed entry
Futures service stopped out a few times after being up on bullish bets, stops tight
TPS holding off on new long term positions, CARG recently surging from 30 to 50 before pullback
Stock ,ETF , and SP 500 Futures Swing Trading plus Growth Stock Investing options for members
Read up at TheMarketAnalysts.com for all Advisory Subscription Services and Track Records
It’s best to belong to three or four of my subscription offerings at the same time to have the most opportunities across all market conditions with multiple shots on goal! Asset allocation as a Trader is key for long term success in all environments– Dave
General Market Summary: Updated Banister Market and Elliott Wave Views on SP 500 and more
Market Notes and Commentary: 4230 support, 4380 resistance for Bulls on SP 500
Markets bifurcated
Tech out of favor for now, Energy-Oil-Gas, Precious Metals, Steel and Materials/Commodity stocks in favor for now.
Biotech remains under pressure since last February and Small Caps have been trying to break north out of a multi-week flat base pattern.
The problem remains high inflation, now exacerbated by Oil supply shocks with Russian/Ukraine war. However, this obviously playing further into the hands of the energy stocks and other inflationary plays. The swing trade ideas list had multiple big movers on the upside last week. In the meantime the SP 500 is not yet able to get past 4380 on a closing basis for Bulls although an attempt in that direction was made late in the week before the Friday pullback. Obvious uncertainty with the war may keep a lid on any rallies near term for the broader markets and also at the same time a positive outcome or cease fire could take commodity/energy stocks down quickly. Difficult times to trade ahead will continue. .
Members of all the premium services are updated daily on market maps and forecasts and we strategize accordingly.
Read up at the3xetftrader.com and join on stocktwits at $40 a month.
Futures service is also on Stocktwits and just $50 a month, huge profits last several weeks
I also subscribe to The Cestrian Stock Bulletin – free:
https://newsletter.cestriancapitalresearch.com/add_subscriber
They have a paid plan on Substack- only $9 per month:
https://www.getrevue.co/subscribers/eU5H4l7fdLGkqv7aEMpeoQ/upgrade
They have samples of their newsletter posts on Substack, along with links to other newsletters they offer:
I plan to subscribe to their newsletter, with funds from my paid subscribers here at The Market Algo NL.
Disclosure: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long positions in, inter alia, TQQQ, NFLX, T, LHX, NET, DOCU.
You’re a free subscriber to Cestrian Tech Select. For the full experience, become a paid subscriber.
***--------***
Swing-Trading:
I am illustrating P/L (Profit/Loss) results of Ed Barsano’s also in a paper-trading acct
Check out my P&L at this link – using Ed Barsano’s free Algo- no software to download: Just set up an account at TDAmeritrade- I Love the algo!
Here is the link:
https://gobabytrade.com/gobabytrade_b0c29d35_0
Email Ed Barsano if you have any questions:
As of market close on 03/11/2022 - All data is USD!
Initial equity in the paper account: USD 7000.00
Stock Price Shares Total Profit/Loss (pending & completed trades‘ results)
RUN 29.37 24 -676.49
NVDA 220.97 8 -28.98
PAAS 27.37 40 +536.08
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Mahendra Prophecy:
Important alert: Predictions and your actions in markets and commodities from here onward after Russia invade Ukraine...
Thursday, 24 February 2022
Dear Members,
Finally Russia Invaded Ukraine on Scorpio Moon, Wednesday and Thursday were crucial as mentioned in the letter. Yesterday when I was writing flashnews for Thursday, an invasion started but I was nervous because of Scorpio Moon but I am not that much worried about overall situations as it is matter between Ukraine and Russia, so financial markets will rebound big soon.
It is Wednesday night 2.30 AM in Santa Barbara and I just got up to write this alert, Though I hate to predict about war and killing, just I wanted to let you know what will happen next from here onward in financial markets, commodity markets and currencies.
This is what we stated on Wednesday when I sent out today's flashnews:
Scorpio Moon playing huge rules and supporting volatility…
Dear Members,
On Wednesday USA and European markets opened higher but then started losing value and closed sharply lower. S&P and NASDAQ just closed at low of 2022 and so now it will be interesting to see whether both these indexes hold our predicted lows or they close below predicted lows for the next three to five days. We also remember that another 10 to 12 days of uncertain trend is pending but surely markets have either bottomed out today or close to bottoming out soon, another one to three percent down side is pending which is irrelevant if you look at medium to longer term trend.
Always I stated that Scorpio Moon misguide investors most of the time, it represents the false picture about financial market so basically it guide you in the wrong directions and investors failed to take right decisions during the Scorpio Moon day, and that is why I always stated
“I hate to guide you and hate to write letter on Scorpio Moon”, I always recommended to stay sideline during the Scorpio Moon day and finishing pending work, because it can punish bear and bull both, like Wednesday bull got punish and today "Thursday" bear may get punish.
This above part is taken today's daily flashnews letter but it is important what is next now for financial market and world at large, where this crisis will escalate and turn into third world war or everything will be settle down so here is our view:
1. Russia invades Ukraine on Scorpio Moon day, which confirms that this crisis will continue for the next 27 days. The Invasion started on Scorpio Moon which means there will be more casualties and people can die then I expected, because I expected smooth invasions without any bloodshed.
2. Ukraine was invaded on Scorpio Moon which means that the current regime may lose power or political changes will take place as predicted this week and last week. Small break-up will take place in Ukraine.
3. Western world won't be able to do much except sanctions but if they send military forces along with NATO, then I recommend getting out of the market as it can turn into the worst war situations which still I don't see this happening at all. ON Friday morning in Asia Scorpio Moon will end which may give signs of hope and relief.
4. Overall we predict this crisis will be over in 27 days so some kind of agreement will take place.
5. As mentioned in this year book that from end of April world will become normal place, or crises like Covid-19 and all uncertainty will get over, so happy period is starting for investors from April and we may see one side rally global markets.
For financial markets:
1. Metals are a positive trend and gold achieved our higher side target of this week $1969 as mentioned in the weekly newsletter. Silver also achieved our higher side targets. Currently oil is trading at $1972 and silver $25.55 levels, these are great profit booking level in gold and silver, close positions. Overview is extremely bullish in precious metals in 2022 as mentioned in this year's book from April, specially Silver from end of April 2022 so keep this in mind.
2. In this week's letter we mentioned that Base metals may move higher until Thursday and we recommended closing long on either Thursday or Friday. Close long in most of the base metals by tomorrow or even today. We also recommended selling palladium on Friday so take sell positions.
3. Oil prices moved higher on Scorpio Moon on Russia news, right now oil is trading around $100 and it is a great sell as the astro cycle is showing its worst bear market for oil in 2022 and specially from April onward. Oil may lose 38% or more value from April. Thursday and Friday one can take short in oil or buy put options of May and June. Even short term traders can buy some put options in oil. We still don't see oil remaining above $92.78 level, or 96.78 for more than five days in 2022 so keep this prediction in mind. Natural Gas can move higher as it is our one of the favorite trade of 2022.
4. The Global market will be very volatile for the next 18 hours but the lower side of Thursday is a great buying opportunity in markets so start buying right now but I will recommend doing it carefully because it is Scorpio Moon day so make any bet carefully but do it for sure. Scorpio Moon will end on Friday morning in Asia so it is a great time to add more bet on Friday as a rebound will take place again, We are recommending getting in aggressive buy on Monday of next week but play with call options as the next ten to 12 days are volatile as mentioned in the letter.
5. Grains are moving sharply higher, though our view is positive for the 2022 but current are suggesting that top have been achieved today specially in Soy products. One can sell or short Soy around $1725. Close long in corn and wheat but don’t short.
6. Cash in from commodities including grains, base metals and oil, oil is in our short list, put this money in stocks on Thursday, Friday and Monday, these kinds of buying opportunities in stocks and Indexes you won’t get again.
Important note: As I always mentioned that I hate to predict Scorpio Moon day but because of huge demand from members so I am sending this alert. I will put out a new alert on Friday, as my accuracy level on Scorpio moon is not that great
. I will be buying stocks and selling commodities for the next three days continuously. What a buy in S&P at 4111, NASDAQ 13045. We may go all in with all our traders during the next week starting from today.
Next week weekly newsletter will be one of the most important letters which I may start writing once Scorpio Moon end tomorrow because many great investment trades are available like in March 2020 and March 2009.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra Sharma
2.30 AM Wednesday
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Please read the FULL DISCLOSURE notice at the very top of every issue of The Market Algo Newsletter (NL)!
My list (not inclusive) of my Due Diligence (DD) sources follows Only available to Paid Subscribers!
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Symbol Quantity I own Avg Price Remarks (may not be any remarks)
AOSL 10 59.93 Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Ltd = Semi stock
ASML 8 733.95 ASML Holding N.V. - semiconductor equipment systems - VERY LONG TERM HOLDING!
BABA 2 126.00 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
BLDR 5 64.80 Builders FIrstSource, Inc
CORN 5 22.70 Teucrium Corn Fund
DBA 5 20.16 Invesco DB Agricultural Fund
DVN 5 51.00 Devon Energy Corporation (pays a Dividend)
ESTE 100 13.20 Earthstone Energy, Inc - VERY Volatile!!!
KRBN 5 51.70 KraneShares Global Carbon ETF - carbon Credits ETF
NVDA 12 312.83 Nvidia Corporation - volatile!
ON 13 70.08 ON Semiconductor Corporation = semi stock
PDCE 5 59.80 PDC Energy, Inc - energy
RJA 5 8.93 ELEMENTS-linked2Rogers Intl Commodity Index - Agricultural Total Return