The S&P500 is Trending Down for the Week ending 01/17/2022
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The S&P500 is Trending Down for the Week ending 01/17/2022
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The Market Algo Newsletter
For the week beginning 01/10/2022
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Analysis published is not investment advice!
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Our proprietary market algo forecasts the following trends (Risk-on or Risk-off) for the week ending 01/17/2022:
Risk-on:
Risk-on: WTI-Crude
Risk-off:
SPY is trending down - Risk off for the week ahead!
VIX-SPY Variance-Correlation: Note that this metric is VERY much biased to the “conservative” focus!
Copper - Risk-off;
QQQ - Risk-off
VIX and VVIX- both trending upward - Risk-off
Reminder: Daniel Riley --Mr TopStep:
provides daily updates on the markets: His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick
Conclusion:
The Bears are in control. Omicron and the Fed Chariman apparently spooked the market in a gig way!- The Bulls are on the run.
IMHO - I think the long-term Bull market remains intact, but things are very volatile at the present time – a bumpby ride ahead- at least for the upcoming week.
I am tracking the weekly price movement of QQQ during 2022:
So,. Moving forward, QQQ was a hypothetical “Buy” on 01/03/2020 at 401.68. IMHO this is a temporary bit of weakness in price- possibly a good entry point.
Each week, I indicate the profit or loss, based on this (pretend) entry point. Let’s see where it ends up at the end of 2022!
As of 01/10/2022 this hypothetical trade shows a loss of $21.57 (380.11 at the close on 01/10/2022).
…***…
Market Notes and Commentary:
Howard Lindzon’s Monday- Momentum email - dated 01/10/2022 as always-is a most compelling read:
Some excerpts
Momentum Monday – X’s over Q’s…Not a fun Market For Growth
Happy Monday.
As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.
As I said in the headline, the X’s over the Q’s is the market environment right now. The energy sector ($XLE and $XOM) is breaking out as are the old financials ($XLF).
I discuss this with Ivanhoff in this week’s show. You can watch or listen right here and I have embedded it on my blog below:
Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:
The first week of the new year was all about the market discounting rising inflation expectations. Interest rates spiked and with them, many financials, oil, basic materials, metals, and industrial stocks galloped higher -. In the meantime, most of the so-called new-economy sectors were under notable pressure – software, semis, biotech.
The Nasdaq 100 lost 4.5% in the first week of 2022. The small-caps Russell 2k lowest almost 3%, the better diversified large-cap S&P 500 shed 1.9%. There are obvious distribution signs on the tape. Big intraday sell-offs are followed by shallow bounces. The short-term trend is lower. The only bullish argument in this tape is the sector rotation into old-economy sectors. Rotational corrections rarely lead to big pullbacks for too long. I am not saying to blindly buy the dip here. That would be irresponsible. I am saying to have an open mind that the new earnings season that starts in less than a couple of weeks might lead to another bounce. For us, it doesn’t matter too much. We will find good risk/reward trades in any market environment. Even last week, when most of the market was under pressure, there were plenty of opportunities on the long side every single day.
Moving on…
Here is Charlie’s 7 chart Sunday. The weakest part of the ‘Q’s has been the software and cloud sectors which are correcting very fast. That seems to be how the markets do their thing.
Charlie also shared a chart of the best performing stocks of the last 30 years which is really a fantastic advertisement for indexing as nobody could have picked the stocks and held them.
Finally, for us home gamers, here are the Stocktwits 25 momentum lists.
Have a great week.
Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures, click here.
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Dave Banister, Chief Analyst at The Market Analyst
(email: Dave@themarketanalysts.com) has some interesting information he shared in his Jan 09, 2021 Sunday Market Commentary:
[Full Disclosure: I subscribe to his Stock Reversals Premium newsletter - check out the SRP newsletter – to include a link to all of his awesome newsletters at:
]
Market Notes and Commentary:
He shares LOTS of actionable recommendations in his SRP newsletter:
Rough waters of late. The NASDAQ 100 finally took it on the chin, and often during a market correction we can’t bottom until “The Generals fall”, an old Wall Street axiom. With the NASDAQ 100 ETF at a triple bottom pattern, near term reversal is important or we could correct further. Sentiment is dialed in at 52 on the CNN reading which is right in the middle of Fear and Greed so that is not of much help in calling a firm bottom just yet.
Banks, Brokerages, Oil and Gas are leading right now, some of which are in the weekly swing trade ideas list at bottom of this report.
This week several charts, I’m also including CRYTO assets Bitcoin and Ethereum and their long term charts are calling for a near term tradeable bottom here. Sentiment for Crypto is at an extreme fear reading of 10, the lowest since July 21 lows and lowest reading in over a year, typically the right time to buy. This should be the year that institutions get involved more aggressively. To wit, we just saw KKR lead a series C round in Anchorage Bank (Crypto/Digital) with a 3 Billion valuation in late December, a nod of institutional approval of this asset class.
3x ETF is flat going into this week as well as SRP and Futures services
Charts below: IWM, SP 500, QQQ, Crypto Sentiment, Eth and Bitcoin
[ unable to print charts ---- Patrick ]
He has some stellar results of past trades—posted on his website!
– I LOVE it!!!
I also subscribe to The Cestrian Stock Bulletin – free:
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They have a paid plan on Substack- only $9 per month:
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They have samples of their newsletter posts on Substack, along with links to other newsletters they offer:
***--------***
Swing-Trading:
I am illustrating P/L (Profit/Loss) results of Ed Barsano’s algo in a paper-trading acct
Check out my P&L at this link – using Ed Barsano’s free Algo- no software to download: Just set up an account at TDAmeritrade- I Love the algo!
Here is the link:
https://gobabytrade.com/gobabytrade_b0c29d35_0
Email Ed Barsano if you have any questions:
As of market close on 01/10/2022 - All data is USD!
Initial equity in the paper account: $7000.00 USD
Stock Price Shares Total Profit/Loss (pending & completed trades ‘ results)
RUN 31.61 87 -596.11
NVDA 273.98 5 +339.68
PAAS 23.01 113 +55.76
**************
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