11/29/2021 issue:
The Market Algo Newsletter
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Introduction:
Welcome to the Market Algo Newsletter.
Analysis published is not investment advice!
The Market Algo Newsletter enjoys having a readership that includes some of the planet’s most prescient and successful FX /commodity/equity traders, VC’s, wealth fund and hedge fund managers! You are among an elite group of souls that enjoy a unique experience in receiving this awesome information each week! “I do the research – you reap the rewards”!
The Market Algo Forecast for the Week Ahead:
Market Trends for the week ahead (as forecast by our proprietary Market Algo):
Our proprietary market algo forecasts show the following as of 11/29/2021 and moving forward:
Risk-on:
Copper, the VIX-SPY Variance-Correlation(which is supposed to be a conservative metric—usually if is risk off- will have to watch what the wweek brings! QQQ was also Risk-On--- Bullish for the techs!
Risk-off:
WTI-Crude, VVIX,
Note that the SPY was DOWN week over week!
Reminder: Daniel Riley --Mr TopStep:
https://mrtopstep.com
provides daily updates on the markets: His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick
Conclusion:
Although the underlying Bull trend remains intact, the week ahead will be – yet again - volatile! IMHO- Notwithstanding the COVID fear mongering: the week should end on a Bullish note (as of Monday: 12/06/2021).
We shall see, no?
Brett Rosenthal (The ARMR Report) would say – IMHO: The mechanical Bull Market remains intact. IMHO a bullish week awaits! Brett’s You Tube updates (The ARMR Report) – free – are Awesome! Check him out!
…***…
Howard Lindzon’s Monday Morning Momentum dated 112921 is- as always- a most compelling read:
Some excerpts:
Happy Monday everyone.
As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.
As always, Ivanhoff and I get together Sunday’s to discuss the momentum in markets.
You can watch this weeks episode here and I have embedded it below:
Mr. $VIX finally reared his head and it was another strain of COVID that set it off. The small caps were already pulling back into support and the growth stocks of the last few years were already getting hammered. The bright spot for consumers would be that oil was crushed on this news.
The $VIX had one of its biggest one day move ever…but don’t despair, Charlie charted the markets one year out from big $VIX moves and the markets are generally much higher.
The Small Caps are forecasting a ‘crisis’ of some sort so I will be watching the price action closely this week…
If the ‘crisis’ is this new strain of COVID, the airline stocks are telegraphing that they can’t handle it well. The hotels and mall stocks hung in better last week but the airline stocks and Boeing look like hell. That makes sense to me as the government has so much new power that the airlines will be the easiest to shut and keep the citizens happy with local eating and shopping and less strict rules.
Investors are not too scared at the moment as they hide out in FAANG stocks for the moment which yield more than treasuries anyway.
Ivan has his quick summary below:
The market has been telegraphing the Covid threat for the past three weeks. The recent acceleration in big tech stocks’ ascent and the decimation of the so-called reopening industries have been clear signs and we often talked about them here. What we saw on Friday was something different. It was a panic. There is a new significant mutation of Covid and we know very little about it yet – is it more transmissible, is it more deadly, how efficient are vaccines against it. When things become clearer, the market will calm down. Until then, we might see more widespread weakness.
At some point, the smart market participants will realize that there’s still plenty of liquidity in the market and an accommodating Fed. All that money is not going to sit idle on the sidelines. It will rotate somewhere. That somewhere can be vaccine stocks – they have proven to be effective, the same technology can be used to quickly produce a version that will deal with any mutation, and it seems the world might need an annual booster shot for the next couple of years. Or enough people will realize that the virus mutations and lockdowns will accelerate “the work and play from home” trend which will benefit the companies that are building the metaverse – U, RBLX, NVDA, FB, MANA, etc. Or what if Pfizer’s antiviral drug turns out to be very efficient against any of the virus mutations – in this case, all the so-called reopening stocks will have a major rally. In other words, after the panic subsides, money will rotate somewhere and very quickly.
In the meantime, the clean-tech space is holding relatively well. Look at the major EV stocks. Most gained ground last week, even the Chinese ones.
Elsewehere…here is Charlie’s 7 Chart Sunday.
Charlie also has another great post up discussing asset allocation and how to avoid another lost decade if this market has you too worried.
Finally, here is this weeks Stocktwits Momentum 25 Lists where I start my work each weekend.
Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures, click here.
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Full Disclosure: My financial advisor, an awesome advisor- IMHO--- shared the following in one of his periodic emails (NOT investment advice):
Zanetti Monday Missive 2021.11.29.
Must Everything Old Be Nu Again?
Hello Everyone,
I had several options for the missive this week.
· Robots replacing labor. That seemed like a good one.
· President Biden asking China and Russia to help him lower gas prices. Yes, you read that right.
· The Federal Reserve purchasing 55% of America’s new debt because we can’t find enough buyers willing to accept 1-2% interest rates while inflation is running four to five times that.
But then last Wednesday news began leaking about yet another Covid variant. It was called Nu. My stomach began to churn.
By Friday, the following cut-and-paste was “top-of-page” at the Drudge Report.
'Nu' Variant Puts southern Africa at Risk of Global Shut Out...
'Worst-Ever' Mutation... Spreading rapidly among young...
Belgium Confirms Case... Israel 'emergency' after detecting...
CHRISTMAS LOCKDOWN FEARS... ANOTHER SHOT!?
Europe surge highlights warnings for USA...
Netherlands new curbs to avoid healthcare breakdown...
German military airlifting patients...
Tensions emerge over redefining 'fully' vaxxed...
MERCK pill shows LOWER efficacy in updated data...
Flood of cases 'unmanageable strain' in Michigan...
Oh, no. Here we go again.
Therefore, “investment wise,” what are we to expect?
Most of you could predict the next part of the missive….and likely give an even more comprehensive list. But if Nu is as advertised, here is some conjecture.
· More shut-downs.
· More supply chain disruptions.
· More panic buying.
· Thus, more shortages.
· Wall Street hyper-reactions to every piece of “news.”
· Immediate calls for government interventions to include the return of…
o Stimulus checks?
o Mortgage forbearance?
o PPP? (Paycheck Protection Program)?
o More mandates. (Notice no question mark after this one.)
· More “emergency” money printing from the Federal Reserve.
· More US Government debt.
· More long-term inflation pressure.
· The gap between the ultra-wealthy and the rest-of-us” expands even more.
I know the above sounds doom-and-gloomy. But it is really just a recap of what has occurred over the past 18 months.
I had hoped all this was fading. Apparently not.
So, here is the part where today’s missive makes a hard pivot.
I believe the real danger of the Nu variant is not financial. Finance will be affected. But it will be a symptom (and not the cause ) of something bigger.
The “something bigger” is the shredding of the social fabric that holds our nation together.
Let me attempt to articulate my concerns.
· The social fabric of our nation was stressed even before Covid.
· Covid not only exacerbated our divisions but added new ones.
o Essential vs. Non-essential.
o Religious vs. Secular.
o Liberal vs. Conservative vs. Progressive vs. Libertarian.
o Urban vs. Rural
o Rich vs. Poor/Middle Class.
o Vaxxed vs. Unvaxxed.
o Government vs. Private Sector.
o Etc.
· Nu could hyper-accelerate these already concerning trends.
· Left unchecked, social divisions devolve into social disintegrations.
I would love to tell you that, historically, pandemics bring out the best in human beings, and that humanity will unite to fight a common foe.
No. History is clear. The opposite occurs. We divide. Fear causes people to act out in ways they would not consider in better times.
Whether it was Justinian’s Plague from 541-800 CE, the Black Death of the mid-14th century, or one of many cholera outbreaks of the 19th century, the same pattern occurs.
First, the people look for someone to blame. And the leaders of the day lead the charge.
Wishing to deflect any blame from themselves (either justified or not) the authorities will confidently identify the culprits. Foreigners. Merchants. Religious leaders. Jews. Christians. Political enemies. Anyone besides themselves will do….and the less they look (or act) like the majority the better.
Next, a collective soul-searching is common. “We must have brought this on ourselves. This must be an Act of God.”
And maybe society did bring it on itself --- think bad hygiene, contaminated water, or bad habits.
Or perhaps it is an Act of God. But since I don’t presume to know the mind of the Almighty, I won’t go there.
The important thing is that society further divides along behavioral and spiritual lines. Behaviors and beliefs that were tolerated before the plague are no longer allowed. Afterall, “your thoughts and actions might kill me!” Violence invariably ensues.
Ultimately, across all societal sectors, trust breaks down completely.
Selfless doctors attempting to cure the sick are killed. Priests coming to give last rights are attacked. Thoughtful leaders who see a path out of the crisis are shouted down and exiled. Families split over trivial matters. Lawyers and politicians looking to expand their wealth use the plague to either “legally” or forcefully seize assets.
In short, a collective psychosis envelops a society. Everyone finds his or her own unique way to explain the unexplainable…and simultaneously the urge is to look inward toward individual survival and personal gain rather than outward toward meeting the needs of others.
Isolation and selfishness trumps unity and selflessness.
Covid 19 was not severe enough to bring us to these extremes. But I believe we all saw these “behaviors-lite” manifest over the past 18 months.
What is new is this. Covid 19 went global. Nu is already global as well.
Every other plague in history was regional. And since humans tend to blame outsiders, that means everyone will be blaming everyone else. We don’t need a global psychosis….and all that comes with it. Ugh.
Now you know why my stomach churned.
The good news is we do not have to go down history’s well-worn path.
In many ways we have advanced. We have tools that can arrest our basic nature.
Justinian did not have the Internet to share true causes and treatments. Doctors of the Middle Ages did not know about DNA or today’s miracle cures. We can reach out to others much more efficiently and effectively.
What if we went the opposite way of previous generations?
Next week let’s make a stronger connection between societal trends and the markets.
Signed, Your Would-Rather-Trust-My-Neighbor-With-More-Freedom-Than-Trust-My-Government-With-More-Power Financial Advisor,
Greg
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Thank you, Greg for sharing
**--------***
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Stock Price Shares Total Profit/Loss (pending & completed trades ‘ results)
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******* About The Market Algo Newsletter: *******
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In closing (appeared in my LinkedIn account):
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We are actively seeking 501c3 (non-profits) and corporate sponsors as supporters, to include partnering with them as well!
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PS:
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