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The Market Algo Newsletter
For the week beginning 12/27/2021
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Analysis published is not investment advice!
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The Market Algo Forecast for the Week Ahead:
Market Trends for the week ahead (as forecast by our proprietary Market Algo):
Our proprietary market algo forecasts show the following as of 12/27/2021 and moving forward:
Risk-on:
Risk-on: WTI-Crude; Copper; QQQ;
VIX and VVIX are in a downtrend!
Risk-off:
VIX-SPY Variance-Correlation: Note that this metric is VERY much biased to the “conservative” focus! --- NOT really geared for more aggressive traders!
Note that the SPY is in an uptrend.
Reminder: Daniel Riley --Mr TopStep:
https://mrtopstep.com
provides daily updates on the markets: His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick
Conclusion:
We had our much hoped=for market reversal to the upside! The Bears are now in hibernation---- The Bulls now dominate!
To reiterate from last week: In December the markets turn bullish, if only during the 2nd part of the month.
The last week of December will nonetheless still be interesting.
IMHO - I think the long-term Bull market remains intact. Going forward.
Typically, January SHOULD see the Bulls still dominating market action.
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Howard Lindzon’s Sunday Rants & Reads- dated 12/16/21 122721 is- as always- a most compelling read:
Some excerpts-
Sunday Reads and Listens…A Crash Course in Semiconductors
It is the last Sunday reading list of the year and I have been in slow mode all week, not reading much. I intend to do the same this coming week.
I decided I needed a crash course in all things semiconductors and assembled some excellent listens on the subject.
The 9th largest company in the world is The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and The Acquired FM podcast does a deep dive complete history.
Shane Parrish of The Knowledge Project has a deep dive ‘All About Semiconductors‘ episode that is great.
Odd Lots (I have been on their podcast to talk about SPAC’s) has a great podcast on the Dutch giant ASML which is on the cutting edge of chips.
Finally, Bloomberg recently had a piece on the chip shortage and why it might only get worse.
Now to the more entertaining content…
I did catch up on a favorite series of mine – Season 4 of Yellowstone.
My friend Russ Fradin recommended Mayor of Kingstown to me and that was a great binge so far. A very unique storyline and Jeremy Renner is great
I also started watching 1883 which is a ‘Prequel to Yellowstone’.
All three shows are paramount by the way which is pretty impressive in a world of the giants Netflix and HBO.
Ellen and I also finally got around to watching O.J. Made In America. It was very well done.
Hopefully these shows keep you busy during this holiday week.
I have an extremely busy January of deadlines and work that I am preparing for this week. Today I am going to do my last long ride of the year with my pal Jono.
Have a great Sunday.
PS – Ok one great read from this week was Matt Levine’s summary of The Purdue Bankruptcy That Did Not Work.
Money’s Biggest Year Ever…The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
Merry Christmas Everyone.
I hope everyone has a happy and healthy holiday season.
I may celebrate today by going to the Suns/Warriors game here in Phoenix.
We have had an incredible run of great weather here in the Valley of The Sun the last three months that finally ended yesterday with a full day of rain. It continues today.
Looking back at 2021 and the one thing that stands out in markets/finance is that money – in physical and digital form – had its biggest year ever.
Right from the top the government led the way…
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The SEC was of course completely lost and behind during 2021 as Gensler was focused on tweeting and TV appearances. While he worried about Crypto, Goldman and JP Morgan…NFT’s exploded and Trumpf pulled off his latest financial scam in his plain sight. Matt Levine has covered it so well.
Now that the ‘yoots’ have their Telegram/Discord pump and dump channels, digital wallets, NFT’s and Opensea …good luck bringing them back to the stock market. The supply of tokens and NFT’s will be endless as the ‘creator economy’ is this generations ‘god given right’. Forget the fact if this is right or wrong or good or bad for the purpose of this blog post.
In hindsight, I should have made my life easier and indexed once the market bottomed in April 2020, but I am a trend follower. Unfortunately, for the most part, what worked in 2020 did not work in 2021…
I am a big believer in do it yourself investing, but also a big believer in keeping it simple. For years here on this blog I have been telling people to choose $QQQ over $SPY when they index and that indexing is best for most, but I also love to pick stocks to try and trounce the public market.
I may put the ‘trouncing the public market’ thinking on the backburner while all this new money continue to swish around.
Exerpts from Howard’s 12/17/21 Momentum Monday:
Momentum Monday…Bouncing Where They Should
Good morning everyone.
Today is the last Momentum Monday of the year. Ivanhoff and I look back and ahead at some of the surprises and and what we got wrong and right.
As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.
You can watch/listen right here on YouTube and I have embedded it below:
Here are Ivanhoff’s quick thoughts…
The small-cap Russell 2k (IWM) tested its multi-month range lows last Monday and it bounced again. The large-cap, QQQ, and SPY also recovered from vulnerable positions below their 50-day moving averages. The participation in the rally was widespread – from reopening stocks like airlines, casinos, hotels, cruise lines, and beaten-down sectors like biotech and ARKK to momentum leaders like semiconductors.
The range-bound market environment remains intact. You don’t want to get too bearish when the main indexes are down several days in a row in a range market as was the case last Monday. You also don’t want to get overly bullish when the indexes are up several days in a row in the same environment.
The last and the first week of the year typically feature big short-term moves in beaten-down former momentum names. I will be watching for opportunities in those. We already saw stocks like BROS and MARA perking up on Friday.
Elsewhere…
Here is Charlie’s 7 chart Sunday
Have a great week.
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Howard Lindzon
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***--------***
Swing-Trading:
I am illustrating P/L (Profit/Loss) results of Ed Barsano’s algo in a paper-trading acct
Check out my P&L at this link – using Ed Barsano’s free Algo- no software to download: Just set up an account at TDAmeritrade- I Love the algo!
Here is the link:
https://gobabytrade.com/gobabytrade_b0c29d35_0
Email Ed Barsano if you have any questions:
As of market close on 12/27/2021 - All data is USD!
Initial equity in the paper account: $7000.00 USD
Stock Price Shares Total Profit/Loss (pending & completed trades ‘ results)
RUN 34.13 69 -442.32
NVDA 309.38 5 +371.03
PAAS 25.18 70 +209.94
******* About The Market Algo Newsletter: *******
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I am an innovation-driven strategist achieving extraordinary results with startups, mature companies, and entrepreneurs worldwide through technology, innovation, digital transformation, executive coaching, with a focus on connecting startups & entrepreneurs with deal makers (i.e., venture capitalists, angel investors, hedge fund managers, wealth fund managers).
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