The Market Algo Newsletter: 12/30/2022
he SPY(SPDR… S&P500 ETF)… is Trending DOWNWARD, MINUS 0.48 for the week ending 12/30/2022
The Market Algo Newsletter: 12/30/2022
The SPY(SPDR… S&P500 ETF)… is Trending DOWNWARD, MINUS 0.48 for the week ending 12/30/2022
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The SPY(SPDR, S&P500 ETF), is Trending DOWNWARD, MINUS 0.48, for the past week ending on December 30, 2022.
For the upcoming trading week, ending on 01/06/2023, our proprietary algo forecasts the following potential trend for each of the following metrics – either Bullish or Bearish:
VIX index: Bearish,
VVIX index: Bullish,
SPY index: Bearish,
West Texas Intermediate – Crude Oil: Bullish,
QQQ: Bearish,
Copper: Bullish,
And of course, the VIX – SPY Correlation Variance” Bearish!
Please note that the SPY, or SPDR – S&P500 ETF – is Trending DOWNWARD, MINUS 0.48, for the past week ending on 12/30/2022!
So what? So, our conclusion for the week ahead is that our algo indicates that the Bears are again in control for the week ahead!
Swing traders and day traders will make money – the traders that are not nimble will be crushed, in our opinion!
For the past few months, we have been saying that we are entering a global depression, not so much a recession!
What do YOU think?
We agree with other analysts, that the equity markets are completely disconnected from the reality of the collapsing economies of many countries around the planet!
When we have a bullish week, it demonstrates, yet one more time, that Wall Street is oblivious to the pain being felt by Main Street!
We do not think we have seen the bottom.
Keep in mind, Volatility is still very much with us!
Indeed, The Bear Market is still very much with us!
We always like to see at least a 3, or greater week period in which the market is in a bull trend before we can determine a potential bottom for the market
Be careful in trading for the next one to three weeks, – AND MORE!
It’s a jungle out there!
*
More details – and:
Our Full Disclosure:
This analysis is not investment advice.
We are not investment advisors!
Any financial information is for educational purposes only, not investment advice!
The global hyperinflation, the global supply chain dislocations, and of course… global drought, plus the “wars,” (take your pick: …Ukraine, Russia, China),…all of these negative factors are certainly not helpful for the bulls’ case!
Please note, Concerning our “VIX, SPY correlation-variance ” metric,
IF the VIX is trending DOWN. And the SPY is trending UP, for the most recent week of trading…then and only then will our VIX, SPY correlation-variance algo indicate a potential Risk-on, (Bullish) trend,… for the upcoming week,…
This indication of a potential Bullish trend, however, only happens,…currently,…on a very infrequent basis!...
As Doug Casey said in a recent interview, we are in a chaotic period in global markets!…
One analyst shared that bear markets may have 7 bull runs during the course of a bear market.
The most recent sucker rally would possibly be bull run number 4!
We may have 3 more bull runs to go before the bear market has run its course.
Reminder:
Daniel Riley –Mr.TopStep:
https://mrtopstep.com
provides daily updates on the markets:
His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick
Commentary for 12/30/2022:
I am indebted to Robin Horsfall’s compelling and timely articles- originally published on LinkedIn!
Robin HorsfallView Robin Horsfall’s profile
Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
Published on LinkedIn:
Robin HorsfallView Robin Horsfall’s profile
• 2nd
Former SAS Soldier. Writer, Veterans Campaigner and Public Speaker. Operations Nimrod and Mikado
The fear has gone!
Lavrov and Putin want Zelensky to 'accept their peace offer'.
I doubt if anyone in human history has ever offered such a duplicitous and deceitful lie as an opening gambit for peace. Lavrov added words to the effect that if the offer was not accepted then Russia would crush Ukraine and Zelensky would be sorry.
Obviously Putin and Lavrov believe that everyone in the world is stupid enough not see what they are doing. They are blustering, banging the drums and rattling their spears in the hope that they can make their enemies frightened.
It is too late! The fear has gone, Ukraine and the west are no longer frightened of fighting the Russian army or of going without Russian gas and oil. We have managed so far and we will manage in the future without them.
Putin is asking for diplomatic negotiations for several reasons.
The first and most important is that he is losing the war on every front. He is running out of munitions and materiel, his people are unenthusiastic, his economy is collapsing he needs peace before the Russian people realise that they don't need him.
Following on he wants to appear to be the peacemaker, the man offering the olive branch in the hope that the west will encourage Zelensky to give up something so that order can be restored. He hopes that the world will forget and forgive the enormous number of Ukrainian people murdered by his invading army. He also needs to convince the Russian people that it is Zelensky who will not make peace.
Very few people are fooled by any of this posturing but hidden away behind the corridors of power are those whose profits are at great risk and who have invested heavily in political parties. Those people need an early end to this war and they don't really care what Ukraine has to give up to get it.
If we want to see who is in the pockets of those 'nameless ones' simply watch who refuses to clap when Zelensky ends a speech, watch who tells us that our energy bills are more important than Ukraine's freedom. Watch who feeds our base emotions so that we resent giving our treasure while Ukraine gives its blood. Watch for them. We might not believe Putin and Lavrov but a lot of us will be more susceptible to the subtle whining of our own representatives.
There is only one morally correct, diplomatic solution to the Ukraine/ Russia War. Putin withdraws all his forces back within the Russian border and pays reparations.
Slava Ukraine!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall
Map of Ukraine- credit: Robin Horsfall- 08/08/2022:
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FYI: I comment on the “real-time” geopolitical blog posts I create for my Reddit “EndUkrainian Genocide” community:
The purpose of the Reddit community is to provide “real-time” updates on geopolitical events occurring worldwide AND connect peace activists and community organizers worldwide to share their journey: Together we CAN climb that mountain!
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On to the “Main Event”:
I post the URL for each news item I share in my REDDIT blog post - if you want to do a deep dive into the source material.
Not the most “elegant” and detailed way of commenting, but as your time is valuable, I try to be as succinct as possible in my comments! - Patrick
Here are the major “real-time” news items I comment on for this past week:
New stuff:
234 views Oct 28, 2022 The AI is getting to be part of our lives on many different levels.Some of it is usefull of course, but at the end, whare is it all going? Let me know in the comments your opinion. Thanks for watching.
TIME'S RUNNING OUT FOR THE WEST - IT WILL BE KEPT FROM YOU UNTIL IT'S TOO LATE TO PREPARE! CONTINGENCY MEDICAL - Emergency Medicines: https://contingencymedical.com/?ref=93 Use Code: AKPREP10 FOR $10 OFF YOUR ORDER Thank you for joining me today, Many Blessings to all of you and your Families. TO
There are so many tax increases that are coming in 2023 that people just don’t know about. In addition to that we are seeing that inflation is continuing to rise. Get Ready to Pay More. #PayMore #TaxIncreases #Inflation #IAllegedly #EVCars #tesla #winklevoss #crypto #layoffs #goldmansachs #gold #car
145,031 views Dec 29, 2022 Predictions for 2023 from conflict, economics, pandemic, civil unrest, energy crises and much more! CANADIAN PREPPERS STORE / Premium Survival/ Emergency Equipment https://canadianpreparedness.com/ Gasmasks and Protective Equipment https://canadianpreparedness.com/coll
US Govt tells Power substation operators to FORTIFY their substations NOW- More attacks expected-SOON!-Prepare now another electrical substation has possibly been attacked and has caught on fire in Pennsylvania. Thousands are without power with a blackout because of damage to the electric substation
7,065 views Dec 29, 2022 On the first day of China allowing their citizens to travel internationally, what do we get? A potential Superspreader event. cash.app/$pinballpreparedness https://freesteading.com/groups/pinba... Pinball Preparedness PO Box 93 Sharps Chapel, TN 37866
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More breaking news is posted on my Reddit EndUkrainianGenocideNow Community!
Join now to keep up with events – as they happen! - - - Patrick
Go here:
Stay tuned for the next issue!
Another source of news and commentary that I follow and recommend is the one authored/published by Elaine Supkis- The Culture of Life News—Highly recommended:
https://emsnews.wordpress.com/
Patrick
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Symbol Quantity I own Avg Price Remarks (may not be any remarks)
AOSL 10 59.93 Alpha & Omega Semiconductor Ltd = Semi stock
ASML 8 733.95 ASML Holding N.V. - semiconductor equipment systems - VERY LONG TERM HOLDING!
BABA 2 126.00 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
BLDR 5 64.80 Builders FIrstSource, Inc
CORN 5 22.70 Teucrium Corn Fund
DBA 5 20.16 Invesco DB Agricultural Fund
DVN 5 51.00 Devon Energy Corporation (pays a Dividend)
ESTE 100 13.20 Earthstone Energy, Inc - VERY Volatile!!!
KRBN 5 51.70 KraneShares Global Carbon ETF - carbon Credits ETF
NVDA 12 312.83 Nvidia Corporation - volatile!
ON 13 70.08 ON Semiconductor Corporation = semi stock
PDCE 5 59.80 PDC Energy, Inc - energy
RJA 5 8.93 ELEMENTS-linked2Rogers Intl Commodity Index - Agricultural Total Return
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Patrick OConnell