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The Market Algo Newsletter
For the week beginning 12/21/2021
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Analysis published is not investment advice!
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The Market Algo Forecast for the Week Ahead:
Market Trends for the week ahead (as forecast by our proprietary Market Algo):
Our proprietary market algo forecasts show the following as of 12/20/2021 and moving forward:
Risk-on:
Risk-on: Copper and the VIX-SPY variance correlation. IF there is a market reversal to the upside, should be an opportunity to go long, even if for some swing trades. We shall see!
Risk-off:
WTI- Crude; QQQ; VVIX & VIX are in an uptrend. Volatility ahead! Be smart and trade in a nimble manner!
Note that the SPY is in a downtrend as well!
Reminder: Daniel Riley --Mr TopStep:
https://mrtopstep.com
provides daily updates on the markets: His website & free email newsletter are a MUST!!! —Patrick
Conclusion:
Where is the Santa Claus rally?
I hear crickets!
The Bears are out of hibernation: Bears rule!
Typically, In December the markets turn bullish, if only during the 2nd part of the month.
The last 2 weeks of December will be interesting. MAYBE there will be a reversal- Time will tell!
IMHO - I think the long-term Bull market remains intact. Going forward.
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Howard Lindzon’s Monday Morning Momentum – Defense!
dated 122021 is- as always- a most compelling read:
Some excerpts-
Good morning everyone.
As usual, Ivanhoff and I got together to tour the markets looking for momentum. This week it is the defensive stocks in charge which means, I continue to play defense with my money. You can watch/listen to the video here and I have embedded it on the blog below:
Here are Ivanhoff’s quick thoughts…
What really happened last week from a big picture perspective – anything high-growth and cyclical that had shown even remote relative strength finally caved in – the mega caps QQQ, semiconductors SMH, homebuilders XHB, financials XLF. It might seem dramatic to talk about a market correction with the S&P500 so close to its all-time highs and still above its 50-day moving average but there has been some serious damage under the surface. Many of last year’s momentum leaders are down 40-50% from their highs. There is a new group of stocks getting hit every week while the most-oversold sectors are having big 1-2-day short-covering rallies. All of this has created extreme volatility and choppiness which require all traders to be extra nimble or just step aside a wait it out.
The Fed wants to accelerate tapering and plans to raise interest rates three times next year in order to fight inflation. Initially, the market read this as complacency and underreaction. All stocks had a major rally on Wednesday afternoon. Most were given back on the following day. Friday was a quadruple option expirations day and we had some major mean reversions. The worst-hit groups in the past few weeks had a sizable bounce – biotech and high-growth, high-multiples software stocks. In the meantime, financials, homebuilders, mega-caps, and semis showed relative weakness. At least this market is not boring and riddled with high correlations.
SPY, QQQ, and SMH are now looking vulnerable to further downside if they lose their lows from Friday. The odds are that we will see more choppiness next week.
Howard here…the headlines are focused on inflation and as Charlie points out in his weekly 6 chart weekend posts, The S&P is generally the best hedge. Also the USA is holding best.
As always, I also include the Stocktwits weekend 25 lists which looks at the best momentum stocks in the market. There is no hiding right now as all the lists were negative.
Finally, I will leave you with a fun Josh Brwon/Batnick interview with Tom Lee who lays out a very bullisg S&P view. I enjoyed listening.
As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.
Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. For full disclosures, click here.
Sunday Reads…San Francisco Is A Goner and Crypto Could Care Less
Happy Sunday everyone.
I am in Portland for my nephew Ari’s Bar Mitzvah.
I have seen more rain in the last few days than the last year in Arizona. I need my sun.
I have been on the road a lot the last week, first in Vegas for Raoul Pal’s crypto conference, and then San Francisco for a day of meetings. I plan on a quiet few weeks at home in Phoenix with the family and am really looking forward to that.
Downtown San Francisco is eerily quiet.
I really liked this post from my friend Peter Yared (The Entire Bay Area Has Become A Declining Tech Company) who lived in the city for 25 years before leaving for Miami last year.
Next up, as I like to say ‘Speculation is Entertainment’ and Bloomberg has a piece titled ‘A Wild, Emotional Year Has Changed Investing—Maybe Forever‘. In 2008, I was a little early speculating that people would love to do investing themselves, but here we are in 2021 and ‘the percentage of the affluent using self-managed accounts for at least part of their investments jumped to 69% in 2021, from 35% in 2015, according to a report from research firm Cerulli Associates.’
The NFL has a gambling problem is an excellent piece from Rusty Guinn.
It is Prime Time in Crypto and Marc Rubinstein has the lay of the land and the stakes are very high.
As we head into 2022, Crypto has gained even more acceptance and mind share as smart people drop everything to work in the sector. I can’t speak for the prices, but the talent movement and money flow trend will continue to accelerate. This long research piece on Coinbase is a good read to give you a feel for what a leader in the category has been doing.
Finally, a quick shout to my old favorite tech news aggregator TechMeme, which is still a go to place for me daily to see the tech news and get a feel for the sentiment of the people reading, covering and disseminating that news.
Have a great Sunday.
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Swing-Trading:
I am illustrating P/L (Profit/Loss) results of Ed Barsano’s algo in a paper-trading acct
Check out my P&L at this link – using Ed Barsano’s free Algo- no software to download: Just set up an account at TDAmeritrade- I Love the algo!
Here is the link:
https://gobabytrade.com/gobabytrade_b0c29d35_0
Email Ed Barsano if you have any questions:
As of market close on 112/20/2021 - All data is USD!
Initial equity in the paper account: $7000.00 USD
Stock Price Shares Total Profit/Loss (pending & completed trades ‘ results)
RUN 31.45 81 -647.73
NVDA 277.66 8 +167.88
PAAS 24.10 83 +121.86
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